* Opposition concerns about the Mozambican election's credibility are shared by many observers but the result - a victory of ruling party Frelimo - will not be overturned. A negotiated settlement which gives Renamo leaders more status will nonetheless be necessary. The chances of a successful agreement are bolstered by the consensus-based approach President-elect Felipe Nyussi.
* Mozambique's growth forecasts are unchanged following the ruling party's widely-expected victory at October 2014 elections. However the strong performance of the opposition increases security and policy risks and these could result in lower growth than we are currently forecasting.
* Mozambique's monetary policy committee will hold its key interest rate at 7.5% in 2015 as it balances low inflation and growth concerns against a slower year on year growth outlook for the economy. A pronounced slowdown for economic growth would lead to more aggressive cuts however.
* The outlook for Mozambique's external accounts has been clouded by falling prices for coking coal an increasingly important export. However the impact of this will be offset by lower oil prices which will constrain the growth of the import bill and the net effect will therefore be marginal.
Full Report Details at
Major Forecast Changes:
* We project real GDP will expand by 6.5% in 2015 from an estimated 7.4% in 2014 up from our earlier forecast of 5.9% for 2015 and an estimated 7.2% in the previous year.
Key Risks To Outlook:
* Mozambique is vulnerable to adverse weather specifically too much or too little rain and this will continue to pose a risk to the agriculturally-based economy.
* The security situation poses a major threat to economic growth the external accounts and government revenue as a significant deterioration would likely lead to reduced foreign investment inflows.
* A failure to address deficient infrastructure is the most pressing risk to our upbeat view on the Mozambican economy. Transport infrastructure...
The Mozambique Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in Mozambique. It is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of Mozambique's economic political and financial prospects through end-2019 just published by award-winning forecasters BMI Research.
* Forecast the pace and stability of Mozambique's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise Mozambique's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in Mozambique including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The Mozambique Country Risk Report by BMI Research includes three major sections:Economic OutlookPolitical OutlookandOperational Risk.
How will the Mozambique' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for Mozambique through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The Mozambique Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for Mozambique and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on Mozambique sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
What are the political risks to doing business in Mozambique over the next 5-years?
BMI's Mozambique country Risk Index evaluates the short- and medium-term threats to political stability.
Political Outlook Contents
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