(MENAFN- ProactiveInvestors - UK) Accendo Markets , 08:01
'FTSE 100 Index called to open -30pts at 6930 as the crude oil price slump continues overnight and investors cautiously price in positions before Q3 UK GDP figures are released later this morning. Bulls will be hoping that the FTSE can find its feet and rebound in early trading out of the downtrend that began at the start of the week to anywhere above 6970 falling highs resistance, whereas Bears are looking for the downtrend to continue on its way towards breaking support at 6900. Watch levels: Bullish 6975, Bearish 6895.
Yet another negative opening call comes a multitude of factors weigh on market sentiment; Oil prices are continuing to tumble as market concerns grow that an OPEC deal next month is becoming increasingly unlikely; overnight Chinese macro data showed a sharp downturn in industrial profit growth (although worth noting that the data for the first 9 months of the year outpaces last year's 8.4% growth); and finally cautious positioning from investors ahead of the first post-referendum UK GDP figures is doing nothing to help buoy the market. However some optimism remains, Q3 earnings reporting continues with Barclays beating expectations by just over 10% as pre tax profits rise by 35% YoY whilst BT also marginally beats expectations and keeps its full year outlook unchanged.
Asian markets are falling once again as the Energy sector leads losses across the region. Japan's Nikkei is 0.3% lower as BoJ Governor Kuroda promises no immediate change to interest targets will take place, Australia's ASX falls 0.6% on account of its heavily weighted energy sector falling 1.25% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng leads losses down 1.2%.
The majority of US equities closed lower yesterday, however the Dow Jones bucked the trend closing up 0.2% thanks to strong earnings from Boeing offsetting losses contributed by Apple. The S & P 500 closed 0.15% lower as the technology heavy Nasdaq fell behind its peers, down 0.63% over the trading session.
Crude oil prices could not maintain a rally provided from a surprise drawdown in US DOE EIA inventory figures yesterday afternoon, remaining around the $50 per barrel mark as a deal promised by OPEC producers to cut output come further into question. OPEC's number two producer Iraq is still hesitant to cut production as its conflict with IS rages on and mixed messages from the Russian government are doing little to ease fears that November's meeting in Vienna may be fruitless. Gold remains in a three week uptrend thanks to increased demand from Asia offsetting rising US Fed rate hike expectations.
In focus this morning will be UK GDP Q3 figures released at 9am. Whilst year-on-year no change is expected, consensus for a slowdown in the QoQ figures shows the widespread concern of a post-Brexit impact on the economy not yet fully reflected by relatively strong macro data since the referendum. Any surprise to the up or downside is likely to provoke major movements in FX and equity markets. Might this finally pop the post-referendum confidence bubble?
Also this morning, UK Index of Services figures are released alongside the GDP data, seen declining MoM but increasing when compared with the previous 3 months, after which October CBI Retailing Reported and Total Distribution Reported Sales figures are released at 11am.
This afternoon's US macro data begins at 1:30pm with Durable Goods Orders data, the ex transport figures seen increasing to 0.2% while the headline figure is expected to show a marginal decline, while weekly Initial Jobless and Continuing Claims are both forecast to fall. All of the above data will impact on Fed Rate Hike expectations and will therefore, as ever, have a knock on effect on USD FX markets. At 3pm Pending Home Sales figures are released, with consensus flat YoY but seen to swing from negative to positive MoM, before the day is concluded by the Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index, expected to decline to 3 from 6, at 4pm.
Once more today sees few speakers of note as the Fed dearth continues, with the ECB's Nowotny and Mersch speaking at 2pm and 6pm respectively, while SSM board member Dombret takes to the stand after US close at 10:30pm. Will they provide any more detail on yesterday's announcement that the ECB will continue its bond purchasing programme past March?'
Accendo Markets
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