(MENAFNEditorial)
Core Views
* The US economy is set to grow at a more rapid pace in 2015 supported by lower oil prices a tightening labour market and improving sentiment. We forecast real GDP growth of 2.9% i n 2015 up from 2.4 % in 2014. Over the long term global headwinds and a rebound in imports will cap real GDP growth below historical standards.
* A stronger real GDP growth outlook and a congress committed to reining in spending will see the US budget deficit continue to narrow in fiscal year 2015 to 2.7% of GDP. Beginning in 2016 the deficit will widen Congress relaxes spending constraints put in place since 2011 rising interest rates increase debt servicing costs and mandatory spending obligations keep upward pressure on expenditures.
* The US current account deficit will continue to narrow marginally in 2015 as lower fuel costs cause the country's import bill to shrink. Export growth will pick up but remain subdued by historical standards due to the sluggish global economy particularly on the part of Europe.
* The US benchmark federal fund interest rate will remain on hold throughout H115 and will rise only modestly in H215 to our end-year target of 0.50%. High-frequency economic data in the US have been mixed over recent months while downsides risks to global growth remain significant particularly with regards to the eurozone.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/987538_united_states_country_risk.aspx?afid=101
Major Forecast Revisions
* We have downgraded our long-term forecasts for the federal funds rate and now expect that the benchmark will converge to a terminal rate of around 3.25% by 2018 compared to our previous estimate of around 4.25% by 2019.
Risks To Outlook
* Political Gridlock Intensifies: Although we believe that there remain deep ideological divisions between the White House and the Republican-led Congress we believe that there is sufficient common ground for significant legislation to pass. If the political climate turns more hostile than we anticipate these gains may not come to fruition.
* Oil...
The United States Country Risk Report helps businesses with market assessment strategic planning and decision making to promote growth and profitability in United States. It is an essential tool for CEOs Chairmen Finance Directors/CFOs Managing Directors Marketing/Sales Directors with commercial interests in this emerging market.
An influential new analysis of United States's economic political and financial prospects through end-2019 just published by award-winning forecasters Business Monitor International (BMI).
Key Uses
* Forecast the pace and stability of United States's economic and industry growth through end-2019.
* Identify and evaluate adverse political and economic trends to facilitate risk mitigation.
* Assess the critical shortcomings of the operating environment that pose hidden barriers and costs to corporate profitability.
* Contextualise United States's country risks against regional peers using BMI's country comparative Risk Index system.
* Evaluate external threats to doing business in United States including currency volatility the commodity price boom and protectionist policies.
The United States Country Risk Report by Business Monitor International (BMI) includes four major sections: Economic Outlook Political Outlook Operational Risk and Key Sector Outlook.
Economic Outlook:
How will the United States' economic policy-making and performance impact on corporate profitability over 2015-2019?
BMI provides our fully independent 5-year forecasts for United States through end-2019 for more than 50 economic and key industry indicators. We evaluate growth and also forecast the impact of economic management.
Economic Outlook Contents
The United States Country Risk Report features BMI's forecasts with supporting analysis for 2015 through to end-2019 set against government views and BMI's evaluation of global and regional prospects.
Key Areas Covered:
Data:
* Full 10-year forecasts with data - for key macroeconomic variables including GDP (real growth and per capita) population inflation current account balance and the exchange rate.
* BMI's comprehensive Risk Index system - rates each country worldwide for economic and political risk and rates the business environment within a global and regional context.
Written Analysis:
* Economic Activity - real GDP growth employment inflation consumption (retail sales and confidence).
* Balance of Payments - trade and investment current and capital account.
* Monetary Policy - interest rate trends (bank lending and deposit rates) and inflation (producer price and consumer price).
* Exchange Rate Policy - currency controls foreign investment flows exchange rates and foreign exchange reserves.
* Fiscal Policy - macroeconomic strategy and policies government finance and tax reforms.
* Foreign Direct Investment - approvals inflows and climate.
* External Debt - debt profile (short and long-term plus public and private sector obligations).
* Global Assumptions - forecasts for each year to end-2019 covering: major commodities growth in key regions inflation and interest and exchange rates in the United States Japan China and the eurozone.
Key Benefits
* Rely upon BMI's 100% independent forecast scenarios for United States and underlying assumptions - we take no advertising and are privately-owned.
* Exploit the benefits of BMI's comprehensive and reliable macroeconomic database on United States sourced and fully maintained by BMI from an extensive network of private sector government and multilateral contacts.
* Gain key insights into the current and future direction of government economic policy which could significantly affect your company's business prospects from BMI's team of analysts and economists.
Political Outlook:
What are the political risks to doing business in United States over the next 5-years?
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