(MENAFNEditorial)
The Korean economy grew at a slower rate in Q214 due to a contraction in domestic consumption. While we expect the fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policy to provide a temporary boost to growth these measures will not take effect until Q414. We therefore maintain our real GDP growth forecast at 3.5% for 2014 and forecast that growth will be marginally stronger in 2015 at 4.1%.
Korea's economy grew more slowly in Q214 at 3.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) compared to 3.9% y-o-y in Q114 with slower domestic consumption growth acting as the largest drag. While exports provided some reprieve weak domestic factors continue to exert downward pressures on headline growth figures. Contracting household consumption in the wake of the Sewol ferry disaster in April weighed heavily on headline figures shrinking by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) in Q214 (compared to growth of 0.2% q-o-q in the previous quarter).
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Gross fixed capital formation also contracted sharply falling from 3.2% q-o-q to -0.2% q-o-q reversing the strong gains in the first quarter. In addition to weak domestic factors we note that headwinds to external demand remain. With the effects of the recently-introduced government stimulus only likely to be felt in Q414 we believe that real GDP growth will come in at 3.5% in 2014 ahead of a moderately stronger performance of 4.1% in 2015.
The road freight sector is set to be the best performing by mode in 2014 with y-o-y growth of 5.00%. Rail and air freight will see slightly lower gains this year (3.04% and 2.24% respectively) while the Port of Busan will outperform domestic peer Incheon in tonnage throughput terms (4.40% compared to 1.70%).
Headline Industry Data
* 2014 air freight tonnage throughput forecast to increase by 2.24%.
* 2014 rail freight tonnage throughput forecast to grow by 3.04%.
* 2014 road freight tonnage throughput forecast to rise by 5.00%.
* Total trade (imports plus exports) is set to grow by 4.30% in real terms in 2014.
* The...
The South Korea Freight Transport Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road rail air and water; industry forecasts company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends opportunities projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s South Korea Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists sector analysts investors trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Korean freight transport and logistics industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on South Korea to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Korean freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in South Korea.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics regulatory changes major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road rail air sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road rail inland waterways maritime air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods food chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Market Overview
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road rail air water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Political Outlook
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region examining the domestic politics long-term outlook and foreign policy and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Company Profiles
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
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