(MENAFN - Trend News Agency ) Baku, Azerbaijan, Aug. 28
By Kamila Aliyeva – Trend:
One of the most important aspects of the US-Iran relationship concerns the way in which the new administration is likely to see concessions in one place as creating possible danger in another, Patrick James, an expert in comparative and international politics and Dornsife Dean's Professor of International Relations at the University of Southern California, told Trend.
'Take, for example, the nuclear deal between Iran and the Obama Administration. This is seen in conservative opinion circles as a dangerous form of appeasement that could impact upon North Korean nuclearization and use of missiles in a very harmful way,' he said.
The expert noted that as things get worse between the Trump Administration and North Korea, more assertive US statements and actions vis-à-vis Iran may be expected.
International players such as China and Russia will most likely stay away from US allies such as France and Germany in this case, he noted.
'All of NATO is concerned about a nuclear-capable Iran. However, Russia is likely to support Iran,' James added. 'China is in the most difficult position of all and it is not at all obvious what they will do.'
Meanwhile, the expert believes that the likelihood of the White House's declaring Iran non-compliant with the 2015 nuclear deal, aka JCPOA, is high, 'because the Trump Administration's base of support is very anti-Iranian.'
Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council – the United States, the United Kingdom, France, China and Russia – plus Germany signed the nuclear deal on July 14, 2015 and started implementing it on January 16, 2016.
The agreement limits Iran's nuclear activities in exchange for, among other things, the removal of all nuclear-related bans against the Islamic Republic.
The US Congress requires the administration's certification (every 90 days) of Iran's compliance with the nuclear deal. Trump's administration has already declared Iran in compliance, as required by law, twice during his tenure.
However, Trump's remarks forecasting that the US would declare Iran non-compliant when the next review is due in September, have cast shadow over the future of the landmark nuclear deal between Iran and the world powers.