(MENAFNEditorial)
We maintain our real GDP growth forecast of 3.5% for 2015 the same rate of growth seen in 2014 amid a fairly positive domestic outlook. However we note that a challenging external environment will continue to present headwinds to Taiwanese exports which by extension will have rep e rcussions for Taiwan's freight industry .
Taiwan's economy grew 3.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q414 slowing marginally from a 3.6% expansion registered in the previous quarter. Despite the weakening global outlook we note that the domestic outlook is relatively positive with credit growth on an uptrend and investment in infrastructure remaining positive and will provide some degree of support. We are therefore happy to maintain our forecast of 3.5% real GDP growth for 2015 projecting the economy to grow at the same rate as it did in 2014.
While growth in Q414 was the result of a continued expansion across all expenditure categories that the rate of growth was slower than the stellar figures recorded in the previous quarter. Exports were the outperformer growing by 5.6% y-o-y in Q414 though this is significantly lower than the 7.5% registered in Q314.
Full Report Details at
- http://www.fastmr.com/prod/974446_taiwan_freight_transport_report_q2_2015.aspx?afid=101
In 2015 the outperforming freight mode in terms of y-o-y tonnage growth is set to be the air freight sector with annual gains of 3.59% pencilled in for the year. The other modes are set to struggle to top 2% y-o-y growth this year.
Headline Industry Data
* 2015 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 3.59% to 1.22mn tonnes.
* 2015 rail freight is forecast to rise by 1.87% to 11.43mn tonnes.
* 2015 road freight is forecast to increase by 2.00% to 654.65mn tonnes.
* 2015 port of Kaohsiung tonnage throughput forecast to grow by 1.46% to 118.23mn tonnes.
* 2015 port of Keelung tonnage growth is estimated to come in at 1.14% to 70.58mn tonnes.
* 2015 total trade is forecast to rise by 4.45% in real terms picking up pace on the 2.80% growth estimated for 2014.
Key Industry Trends
China Airlines Plans New Aircraft...
The Taiwan Freight Transport Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road rail air and water; industry forecasts company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends opportunities projects and regulatory changes.
BMI Research's Taiwan Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists sector analysts investors trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Taiwanese freight transport and logistics industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Taiwan to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Taiwanese freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Taiwan.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI’s key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics regulatory changes major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major strengths weaknesses opportunities and threats within the freight transport sector and within the broader political economic and business environment.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series (2008-2012) and forecasts to end-2019 for all key industry and economic indicators (see list below) supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
* Transport Sector: Total freight carried by road rail inland waterways maritime air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes).
* Trade: Exports and imports (USDmn) by category of goods (manufactured goods food chemicals etc.); top five import and export trade partners (USDmn); imports/exports to each global region (USDmn)
* Port Data: Throughput (‘000 tonnes) for all major ports in the state.
* Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (USD/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs.
* Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (USDbn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (USD); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Market Overview
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road rail air water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Industry Trends and Developments
Analysis of the latest projects across the freight transport sector (road rail air sea and logistics) including a market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
Political Outlook
The Freight Transport market reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region examining the domestic politics long-term outlook and foreign policy and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Company Profiles*
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI’s industry forecasts our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate company SWOT analyses.
The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
Sources
The Freight Transport reports draw on an extensive network of primary sources such as multilateral organisations government departments industry associations chambers and company reports
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