(MENAFNEditorial)
We anticipate that growth in Brazil's freight transport volumes will outperform the Latin American giant's real GDP growth over our medium-term forecast period (2015-2019) across all modes. Brazil will remain mired in a period of low growth in the coming years due to a slowing consumer story persistent business environment challenges and a weaker external environment. A more substantial contraction in real GDP in Q214 than we anticipated has prompted us to revise down 2015 headline growth forecast. Nevertheless steady growth in mining and agriculture output will ensure that freight volumes keep growing.
Continued growth in the BRIC (Brazil Russia India and China) nation's mining and agribusiness sectors will ensure that the road rail and ports sectors will continue to experience healthy expansion while air freight will benefit from the growing demands of the country's expanding middle class. Further the sector will benefit from Brazil's role as a major exporter of a host of commodities.
Full Report Details at
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Nevertheless there remain serious challenges to growth and hence risks to our outlook. These stem from both the physical side - whether infrastructure development in the country will be sufficient to support our projected growth rates; and the human - the ports sector is already undergoing a wave of industrial unrest as workers contest the government's proposed ports privatisation moves.
We are revising down our 2015 forecast to 1.5% from 2.1% following a weak Q214 growth print. Real GDP contracted by 0.9% year-on-year (y-o-y) in the second quarter on the back of an 11.2% y-o-y contraction in real fixed investment. This real GDP contraction was weaker than our expectations and Bloomberg survey estimates of -0.6% y-o-y. Real GDP growth will head gradually higher in the coming quarters as private consumption gets a modest boost from falling interest rates and base effects bolster fixed investment growth.
Key Industry Data
* Air freight tonnes to grow 3.4% in 2015 to...
The Brazil Freight Transport Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road rail air and water; industry forecasts company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends opportunities projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Brazil Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists sector analysts investors trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Brazilian freight transport and logistics industry.
Key Benefits
* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Brazil to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Brazilian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Brazil.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs KPIs and latest activity).
Coverage
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics regulatory changes major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road rail air sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road rail inland waterways maritime air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods food chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Market Overview
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road rail air water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
Political Outlook
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region examining the domestic politics long-term outlook and foreign policy and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Company Profiles
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
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