( MENAFN Editorial )
A deceleration in construction industry growth and a relatively slow expansion of the transportation and communications sector underpin our forecast for real GDP growth in Panama to moderate to 6.5% this year from 8.3% in 2013. Nevertheless we anticipate that a pick-up in construction next year in advance of the completion of the Panama Canal expansion will bolster headline growth in 2015 and proving a boon to the country's freight industry.
Latest data supports our view for a notable slowdown in Panamanian real GDP growth in 2014. Real GDP growth came in at 5.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q114 the weakest print since 2009 as a work stoppage on the Panama Canal expansion project weighed on economic activity and growth in the transport and communications segments remained relatively slow. With these factors set to persist in the next few months we maintain our forecast for real GDP growth of 6.5% in 2014 down from 8.4% in 2013 ( see 'Weakening Fixed Investment Outlook Underpins Growth Downgrade' April 29).
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We expect the slowdown in construction industry growth in Q114 to weigh on full-year real GDP growth. Indeed construction industry growth decelerated to 16.5% y-o-y in Q114 from 38.5% y-o-y the previous quarter due in part to a 15-day work stoppage on the Canal expansion project in February. Moreover we have also seen signs that a work stoppage in April weighed on growth as economic activity for April came in at 2.7% y-o-y the lowest level since 2009. While we expect construction industry growth remained moderate in H114 we anticipate a pick-up in H214 and into 2015. This is underpinned by our view that the consortium in charge of the Panama Canal expansion will ramp up construction in order to complete the project next year. As such we forecast real GDP growth to accelerate to 6.8% in 2015.
The freight mix in Panama is obviously dominated by the canal and specifically the expansion of the canal which is securing all the headlines at present....
The Panama Freight Transport Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road rail air and water; industry forecasts company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends opportunities projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Panama Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists sector analysts investors trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Panamanian freight transport and logistics industry.
* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Panama to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Panamanian freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Panama.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs KPIs and latest activity).
BMI Industry View
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics regulatory changes major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road rail air sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2018 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road rail inland waterways maritime air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods food chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road rail air water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region examining the domestic politics long-term outlook and foreign policy and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
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