( MENAFN Editorial )
2.8% GDP Growth Expected This Year
BMI remains fundamentally positive about the Polish economy although a little below consensus in our growth forecasts. Underpinning this is our view that domestic consumption will remain strong stimulated by low inflation rising employment and low interest rates. Household consumption represents a larger share of the Polish economy - around 60% - than in some of its Central European neighbours (around 50% for Slovakia and the Czech Republic). This gives Poland extra resilience to any headwinds coming from the external environment. That said we are also positive about the contribution net exports will make to the country's ongoing recovery. This however is where we are a little more cautious than the consensus. We see risks that declining Asia demand will feed through into weaker German factory output in turn dampening demand from Polish supply chains. For 2014 we are forecasting real GDP growth of 2.8% versus consensus forecasts of 3.2%. Nonetheless the acceleration in economic activity remains reasonably robust and domestic and external conditions will remain accommodating. We expect growth to gather pace to 3.1% next year. Poland should achieve average annual growth of 3.3% over the next five years.
Full Report Details at
Although expanding on 2013 levels the outlook for the country's freight transport modes is mixed. After a slow 2013 greater GDP and foreign trade growth in 2014 will make a positive contribution. Some freight modes will have the additional benefit of increases in capacity or extra demand because of Poland's role as a gateway into north-eastern Europe. The port of Gdansk is an example reflecting the rapid development of its capacity as well as its good business links. The largest global container line Maersk Line is its customer and the shipping company now offers the facility as a port of call on some of its direct Asia-Europe services.
Headline Industry Data
* 2014 air freight tonnage is expected to grow by...
The Poland Freight Transport Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road rail air and water; industry forecasts company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends opportunities projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Poland Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists sector analysts investors trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Polish freight transport and logistics industry.
* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Poland to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Polish freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Poland.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs KPIs and latest activity).
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics regulatory changes major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road rail air sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road rail inland waterways maritime air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods food chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road rail air water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region examining the domestic politics long-term outlook and foreign policy and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
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