( MENAFN Editorial )
We have downgraded Vietnam's growth forecast from 5.9% to 5.7% in 2014 on the back of weaker-than-expected H1 2014 growth numbers combined with the risk of a an economic backlash from China ( see 'Political Tensions Pose Downside Risks To Growth' June 10). . That said we have maintained our forecast for growth to come in at 6.4% in 2015 and we continue to believe that the economy will be driven by growth supportive government policies as well as a strong outlook for foreign investment and exports. This is welcome news to the country's freight industry.
Real GDP growth came in at 5.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in Q214 according to the General Statistics Office (GSO) bringing growth for the first half of the year to 5.2% y-o-y. This marks an acceleration when compared to the 4.9% registered in the first half of 2013 and chimes with our view that the economy will continue to accelerate into 2014 and 2015. Growth was predominantly driven by strength the services sector as well as the industry and construction sectors which contributed 2.6 and 2.1 percentage points respectively to growth.
Full Report Details at
Although we see strong growth ahead we have revised down our growth forecast for 2014 from 5.9% to 5.7% on the back of a slightly weaker than expected first half of the year combined with the potential for an economic backlash from the ongoing political dispute with China ( see 'Political Tensions Pose Downside Risks To Growth' June 10). That said we have kept our 2015 real GDP growth forecast unchanged at 6.4%.
We are sticking to the majority of our forecasts from last quarter with the sole exception of the Port of Ho Chi Minh City which we have slightly upgraded. Therefore growth across the Vietnamese freight mix is set to be fairly healthy this year with road freight set to be the outperformer in annual gains terms at 6.01%. Meanwhile rail and air freight will see y-o-y increases of 3.12% and 3.00% respectively.
Headline Industry Data
* 2014 rail freight tonnage is...
The Vietnam Freight Transport Report has been researched at source and features latest-available data covering commercial transport and logistics by road rail air and water; industry forecasts company rankings covering leading national and multinational operators; and analysis of latest industry trends opportunities projects and regulatory changes.
Business Monitor International (BMI)'s Vietnam Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists sector analysts investors trade associations and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the Vietnamese freight transport and logistics industry.
* Benchmark BMI's independent freight transport industry forecasts on Vietnam to test other views - a key input for successful budgetary and planning in the strategic freight transport market.
* Target business opportunities and risks in the Vietnamese freight transport sector through our reviews of latest industry trends regulatory changes and major deals projects and investments in Vietnam.
* Assess the activities strategy and market position of your competitors partners and clients via our Company Profiles (inc. SWOTs KPIs and latest activity).
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts views and trend analysis covering freight transport and logistics regulatory changes major investments and projects and significant national and multinational company developments.
Industry SWOT Analysis
Analysis of the major Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats within the freight sector and within the broader political economic and business environment.
Industry Trends And Developments
Analysis of latest projects across the freight transport sector (road rail air sea and logistics) including market overview which provides an outline of the key elements driving development.
BMI Industry Forecasts
Historic data series and forecasts to end-2017 for all key industry and macroeconomic indicators supported by explicit assumptions plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast including:
Transport Sector: Sector Value (US$bn); sector real growth (%); employment (`000); total freight carried by road rail inland waterways maritime air and pipeline (mn tonnes-km/mn tonnes)
Trade: Exports and imports (US$mn) by category of goods (manufactured goods food chemicals etc.); top-5 import and export trade partners (US$mn); imports/exports to each global region (US$mn)
Port Data: Throughput (`000 tonnes) and container throughput (TEU) for all major ports in the state
Oil Products Prices: Price forecasts for gasoline and aviation fuel (US$/bbl) at all major global energy trading hubs
Economic Indicators: Nominal GDP (US$bn); real GDP growth (%); GDP per capita (US$); industrial production (%); unemployment (%)
Details of the freight infrastructure in each state by segment (road rail air water and pipelines). Full analysis of the competitive landscape within each segment.
The freight reports contain a chapter detailing the political outlook of a given region examining the domestic politics long-term outlook and foreign policy and assessing the impact this could have on freight and transport businesses.
Examines the short- to medium-term business strategies of key industry players. Strategy is examined within the context of BMI's industry forecasts our macroeconomic views and our understanding of the wider competitive landscape to generate Company SWOT (Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities and Threats) analyses. The latest financial and operating statistics and key company developments are also incorporated within the company profiles enabling a full evaluation of recent company performance and future growth prospects.
About Fast Market Research
Fast Market Research is a leading distributor of market research and business information. Representing the world's top research publishers and analysts we provide quick and easy access to the best competitive intelligence available. Our unbiased expert staff is always available to help you find the right research to fit your requirements and your budget.
For more information about these or related research reports please visit our website at http://www.fastmr.com or call us at 1.800.844.8156.
Legal Disclaimer: MENAFN provides the information “as is” without warranty of any kind. We do not accept any responsibility or liability for the accuracy, content, images, videos, licenses, completeness, legality, or reliability of the information contained in this article. If you have any complaints or copyright issues related to this article, kindly contact the provider above.