(MENAFN- Gulf Times) Whether climate change is human-caused or not is a topic of much-heated debate. But a new study says it is extremely unlikely that 2014, 2015 and 2016 would have been the warmest consecutive years on record without the influence of human-caused climate change. Temperature records were first broken in 2014, when that year became the hottest year since global temperature records began in 1880. These temperatures were then surpassed in 2015 and 2016, making last year the hottest year ever recorded. In 2016, the average global temperature across land and ocean surface areas was 0.94C above the 20th century average of 13.9C.
Combining historical temperature data and state-of-the-art climate model simulations, the new study finds the likelihood of experiencing consecutive record-breaking global temperatures from 2014 to 2016 without the effects of human-caused climate change is no greater than 0.03% and the likelihood of three consecutive record-breaking years happening any time since 2000 is no more than 0.7%. When anthropogenic warming is considered, the likelihood of three consecutive record-breaking years happening any time since 2000 rises to as high as 50%. That means human-caused climate change is very likely to blame for the three consecutive record-hot years, according to the study accepted for publication in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.
Greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide and methane, accumulate in the atmosphere and trap heat that would otherwise escape into space. Excess greenhouse gases from industrial activities, like burning fossil fuels, are trapping additional heat in the atmosphere, causing the Earth's temperatures to rise. The average surface temperature of the planet has risen about 1.1C since the late 19th century, and the past 35 years have seen a majority of the warming, with 16 of the 17 warmest years on record occurring since 2001, according to Nasa.
Scientists are now trying to characterise the relationship between yearly record high temperatures and human-caused global warming. In response to the past three years' record-breaking temperatures, authors of the new study calculated the likelihood of observing a three-year streak of record high temperatures since yearly global temperature records began in the late 19th century and the likelihood of seeing such a streak since 2000, when much of the warming has been observed. The new study considers that each year is not independent of the ones coming before and after it, in contrast to previous estimates that assumed individual years are statistically independent from each other. There are both natural and human events that make temperature changes cluster together, such as climate patterns like El Nino, the solar cycle and volcanic eruptions, according to Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University in State College, Pennsylvania, and lead author.
When this dependency is taken into account, the likelihood of these three consecutive record-breaking years occurring since 1880 is about 0.03% in the absence of human-caused climate change. The results make it difficult to ignore the role human-caused climate change is having on temperatures around the world, according to Mann. Rising global temperatures are linked to more extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, floods, and droughts, which can harm humans, animals, agriculture and natural resources, it should be remembered.
Rising global temperatures are linked to more extreme weather events
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