- US equities locked in some consolidation ahead of next move
- UK equities unable to decide which direction they want to go
- German equities looking for close back below 20-Day SMA
- Japanese equities could have put in critical short-term top Wednesday
- Australian equities expected to remain well capped on rallies above 4,300
US30 (Dow)
Technical: Remains very well supported on any form of a dip with the 20-Day SMA continuing to prop. However, the market is trading by multi-week highs and daily studies are starting to track in overbought territory to warn of short-term structural shift. But, a close back below the 20-Day SMA will be required to trigger bearish price action and open deeper setbacks.
Fundamental: Markets continue to be well supported, rallying yesterday after setback earlier in the day. Ultralow rates from the Fed are thought to be providing an added push to sentiment. Markets await the impact of US Q4 GDP today, with the weakening market for U.S. Treasuries signaling that the economic recovery may be poised to weaken even as consumer confidence rises toward pre-recession levels.
UK100 (FTSE)
Technical: While the trend in this market remains bullish for the time being, we are starting to see signs of a potential bearish reversal with daily studies looking stretched. A close back below the 20-Day SMA will be required to accelerate further and expose more significant support by the January 30 previous higher low at 5,649. A daily close back above 6,000 negates and gives reason for pause.
Fundamental: UK stocks continue to be well supported, propped by rising retail sales in February. Meanwhile, an index of consumer confidence sentiment today held at its highest since June. However, Bank of England Governor King recently said that economic recovery amid Europe’s debt crisis will be “slow and uncertain.”
GER30 (DAX)
Technical: No major signs of reversal just yet despite daily studies tracking into overbought territory on the daily chart. Still, while the up-trend remains intact, there are risks for a significant short-term pullback ahead. Look for a break below the 20-day SMA to confirm short-term shift and open the door for an acceleration of declines. Above 7,000 delays bearish outlook and gives reason for pause.
Fundamental: The European Central Bank handed out more money than expected to 800 banks today in a bid to increase market liquidity. 800 banks participated in the bid, as opposed to 523 in December. Meanwhile, German unemployment held at 6.8% in January, the German stats bureau said today. The figure represents a twenty year low in unemployment.
JPN225 (Nikkei)
Technical: Daily studies are finally starting to correct from violently overbought levels and we would recommend that bulls proceed with caution over the coming days. From here, short-term risks are tilted to the downside so that technical studies can unwind from these overextended readings. Look for a pullback towards the previous resistance now turned support by the 200-Day SMA in the 9,000 area before considering possibility of a bullish resumption. Wednesday’s high by 9,863 could now represent a meaningful short-term top.
Fundamental:Amid a booming market, the Bank of Japan’s Shirakawa today said the BOJ will “pursue strong monetary easing.” Stocks have recently climbed sharply on the back of increased quantitative easing from the Bank of Japan. The freefalling Yen has seen its steepest drop in two years, a development which is expected to continue bolstering the outlook of exporters into the coming weeks.
AUS200 (ASX)
Technical: Rallies have been well capped above 4,300 as we had anticipated and the market is in the process of rolling back over in favor of a bearish decline towards 4,165. A break below 4,165 will then accelerate setbacks and expose 4,100 and the 4,000 further down. Ultimately, only a daily close back above 4,315 gives reason for pause.
Fundamental:After winning a leadership ballot two days ago, Australian Prime Minister Gillard today said she’s working on a new cabinet lineup. She gave no further indication on the matter. Meanwhile, the commodity-correlated Australian economy may soon feel the brunt of the economic tumble in the US, with oil falling the most in more than five weeks as U.S. orders for durable goods dropped in January.
--- Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist
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