Oil Scene  

Syed Rashid Husain

JODI is one!

Launched officially around this time last year, by non other than Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques King Abdullah, JODI — joint oil data initiative — is growing in stature and gaining acceptance.

In the backdrop of the "heightened energy consciousness around the world," the issue of "global energy security in a multi-polar world," has assumed still greater and peculiar dimensions.

Energy world is much ruled by perceptions. Market psychology is the determining factor behind the price volatility of crude, some say. The current bull run in the market is owed to a number of factors — the perception about a major energy crisis just round the corner — for one reason or the other, is being termed today by some analysts as the most important underlying fact behind the current woes and the upheavals.

There is no dearth of pundits — all around — who insist the fossil fuel era is coming to an end. That finding out alternative energy resources is a must, for sustaining the modern civilization. A bleak and dreadful scenario indeed!

Transparency and accuracy of energy related data is but a major cause of concern and debate on the issue. How long the modern, fossil fuel driven civilization is to continue? There is no agreement on "peak oil" theory. Has the global oil production already peaked, or is it just round the corner? There are however people, heavy weights in their own stride, on the other side of the fence insisting the peak oil moment is still far away. Where is the reality?

All of this is confusing, not only to the layman, the ultimate consumer of energy, but to analysts too. As many people as one talk to, every one has a perception and version, yet no definite answer.

Data is definitely part of the problem. There is not one group of data on which every one agrees. Pundits reach their diverging conclusions on the basis of the data available to them. And since there is a colossal divergence among different sets of data, generated by different set of people, it becomes virtually impossible to reach an informed, unified conclusion.

JODI, the flagship of the Riyadh-based International Energy Forum, is trying to fill in this gap. Indeed there are the IEAs and the OPECs, the APEC and the OLADE, yet each represents a certain interest group, a certain school of thought, often significantly divergent from the other.

IEFS and JODI bring in these divergent schools, closer, together, weaving a network that could be comprehensive and acceptable to most — if not all. JODI works on data generated by all of these interest groups and it has been working on that objective ever since the role was assigned.

JODI generated data has now been available to all those interested for last one year. In order to discuss its progress and delineate JODI's future course, the stake holders are meeting in Riyadh on Nov. 24 and 25. Some 35 countries, a number of international organizations involved with energy issues and energy experts from across the globe are participating in the two-day event in Riyadh. Although the agenda of the meeting has not been made public, perhaps still undergoing finetuning, under the microscopic supervision of Ambassador Arne Walther and his project team — Dr. Said Nachet and Bruno Castellano.

Transparency does not happen overnight. "This is not an event, rather, a process," argues Ambassador Walther, and JODI team admits, "despite the fact that significant progress has been achieved since its inception, the data base is still far from being complete and perfect."

The IEF Secretariat is faced with many hurdles, or challenges, as they diplomatically put it. Timeliness and quality of data submitted are two significant issues they appear faced with. Timeliness — providing data in time by the respective countries — is improving now they assert. Since this is a voluntary action on the part of the participating countries, the secretariat has to depend on the participating countries — 92 by now.

In order to generate quality data at source, the secretariat is also undertaking training programs. One such program has already taken place in Caracas, Venezuela, while the next one is scheduled in South Africa the next year.

The data generate by JODI is definitely not perfect and does not answer all the answers authoritatively, yet progress toward the elusive goal is definitely being made. And this in itself is commendable.

JODI has made one particular distinction; the data from the top 30 consumers and producers, covering almost 90 percent of the crude being produced and consumed, have gone through a more significant and thorough evaluation, before being incorporated in the JODI data. Apparently representing no interest group, the motivation to arrive at a fairer conclusion is inevitable here.

Another interesting point underlined by the JODI team at their headquarters, was that unlike other data, generated by other groups and consultancies, JODI data is available to every one free of cost, at the click of mouse, if one is allowed to borrow the terminology.

JODI currently is just covering crude. However, its stakeholders have been suggesting the IEFS to include other forms of energy too in their scheme of things. The secretariat is currently evaluating the possibility and resource availability before undertaking any such responsibility, yet if and when the IEFS decides to take a plunge into other forms of energy too, JODI could be a role model.

The joint oil data initiative has still a long way to go. Despite its limitations, and there are many, it could still be of great help in overcoming at least part of the confusion that currently rules the energy world. That in itself would be a major achievement — one has to concede.