Oil Scene  

Syed Rashid Husain

An engrossing, encompassing and interesting debate is raging and the entire energy fraternity is passionately involved. Proponents and the opponents of the peak oil theory are out in open — putting across their diametrically opposite arguments, in a charged atmosphere.

Leading from the front, Saudi Aramco Chief Executive Abdallah S. Jum'ah is now forcefully arguing that at the current consumption levels, the world has enough oil to last — for at least 140 more years. Admitting though in a very conspicuous manner that crude remains a finite source, and none can indeed debate it, he emphasized the world has tapped only a considerably small portion, than previously thought, of this precious natural resource.

And when Jum'ah says something he speaks with a sense of authority and responsibility. After all he is the caretaker of the world's largest crude reserve.

Speaking before a galaxy of industry experts in Vienna, Jum'ah vehemently argued, "the world has consumed only about 18 percent of its conventional potential" of the totally producible potential of 5.7 trillion barrels of oil. And he stressed: "We are looking at more than 4.5 trillion barrels of potentially recoverable oil (still to be recovered)." He added, extracting "every last economic barrel" was challenging but not impossible and exhorted the industry leaders to step up exploration and "leave minimum amount of oil in the ground." In the process Jum'ah shred apart the theory that the global crude supplies are in the danger of running out within a few decades. Facts speak to the contrary, he emphasized.

Jum'ah had reasons for his optimism. Saudi Arabia the major producer is under explored, every one agrees. He thus argued that over the next 25-30 years, the Kingdom could add another 200 billion barrels to its recoverable reserves. Others concur with him on the issue.

Applying new technology to unearth the last drop of possible oil from the earth and increase recovery rates appears today the key to keeping the world well oiled. Technology would go a long way in making exploration costs lower, thus making the otherwise uneconomical assets productive and feasible, the Aramco CEO deduced.

Jum'ah's assertions were followed by similar remarks from Exxon Chief Executive Rex Tillerson, emphasizing there was no dearth of resources. "The era of easy oil is not over, because there has never been easy oil," Tillerson argued.

While Jum'ah and ExxonMobil CEO, were putting across reasons after reasons to reassure the jittery energy fraternity saying the much feared "oil peak" was not to be encountered soon, in our lifetimes at least, many were still far from convinced.

Kenneth Deffeyes, a leading peak-oil theorist from Princeton University, sees nothing that could shake his conviction about the imminent end of the oil era. On the contrary, he said he could point to the precise month when global crude production peaked — December, 2005. Indeed the pointing was based on Hubbert's Peak theory that correctly forecast in 1956 that the US conventional oil production would begin to decline in the early 1970s.

"This is 99 percent physical; 1 percent economics," he said in an interview. "There is only so much oil in the ground and we have now reached the peak of productive capacity." Deffeyes noted that data from the US Energy Information Administration indicates world crude oil production peaking at 85.1 million barrels a day last December and then declining to 84.3 million barrels last June.

He appeared unfazed by the EIA forecasts of oil production growing up to 102 million barrels a day by 2030, dismissing it outrightly, "I work from facts contained in the data, not from fantasies in forecasts." While the peak-oil theorists are undeterred by the price slide, governments and the broader public may lose interest in the theory if prices settle back into a more comfortable range.

In the United States, the Department of Energy has asked the National Petroleum Council, an industry information group, to investigate peak-oil claims. The council launched a study that includes different industries and environmental groups. It will survey existing studies and examine why they differ on how much oil and gas the world holds and what the response should be.

In Australia, a senate committee has concluded that the government there should plan for an imminent decline in world oil production, while Sweden hopes to end its oil dependency by 2020.

James Williams, a veteran energy economist at WTRG Economics Inc., said the peak-oil theorists make a legitimate point — over the long-term. "There is only so much oil in the ground," Williams said. He added, however, that higher prices — even if they fall back to $50 — will allow crude oil deposits that have not been counted as potential reserves to be commercially exploited. "The estimate of reserves is a moving target," he said. "If you double the price, you automatically increase reserves."

However, there is a third dimension to this entire debate, that of finding a middle way, away from the black and white scenario. Presenting his argument in the very Hofburg Palace in Vienna, Ambassador Arne Walther, secretary general of the Riyadh based International Energy Forum Secretariat characterized the "New Energy Era" in a contrasting perspective. "The New Energy Era is of heightened energy consciousness around the world, with increasing uncertainties and growing interdependencies among nations." With national policies "being tuned to energy demands and uncertainties of today and tomorrow," new uncertainties are being created in the process for others, he argued, leaving the comity of nations with no alternative but to interact more on energy issues for a common better future. "Global producer — consumer dialogues assumes, greater importance in the circumstances," Ambassador Walther underlined and one has to underwrite it.

The debate thus lingers on. The fact though remains, the world is not going to be out of economically viable crude sooner. One could definitely argue the exact time frame of this ultimate eventuality to happen, yet in the medium term there is no shortage and especially so if the assurance comes from none other than Jum'ah. The world has to give credence to what Jum'ah sees through his Crystal Ball.