Jordan- New gov't 'last chance' for reform 

(MENAFN - Jordan Times) More than the country's fourth government since the launch of the Arab Spring, observers say the Prime Ministry's latest occupant may represent the final chance to revive the country's stalled reform drive, according to political analysts.

By tendering his surprise resignation on Thursday, outgoing premier Awn Khasawneh placed a spotlight on the country's flagging reform process and the failure of successive governments to realise political change, they said.

The delay in democratic reforms was the central theme in His Majesty King Abdullah's Letter of Designation to Fayez Tarawneh and his response to Khasawneh's resignation, in which he stressed that the country "does not have the luxury of time" in its political development.

"The King was very clear; political reform is the only answer to the difficult political and economic conditions the country is going through, and we cannot afford to wait," said Samih Maaytah, political observer and head of Al Arab Al Yawm's editorial board.

Those who have stepped through the Prime Ministry's revolving door to carry through reforms have had to deal with a series of events largely outside their control.

Despite overseeing "milestones" in 2011 such as the National Dialogue Committee and the largest overhaul of the Constitution in half a century, observers say former premier Marouf Bakhit suffered poor relations with the Islamist-led opposition and MPs' distrust that posed several roadblocks to his efforts to push through reform legislation.

The growing resistance from various political forces, and a series of nationwide protests over municipal elections, eventually forced Bakhit to step down before seeing the reforms through.

"In many ways, Bakhit was actually very successful, but this was overshadowed by the municipalities crisis," said Musa Shteiwi, head of the University of Jordan's Centre for Strategic Studies.

Although enjoying broader support from various social and political groups due to his independent reformist image, analysts say Bakhit's successor was beset by a series of local and regional crises.

Confronted with pressing issues, including the influx of Syrian refugees, rising energy prices and a teachers' strike which threatened to shut down the country, observers say the former International Court of Justice vice president had little time or energy to focus on political reform.

"If one is trying to manage several crises at once, how can he focus his energies on the most important laws in a generation?" remarked Omar Kullab, Ad Dustour columnist and political observer.

Others place blame on the brewing political crisis on Parliament, accusing lawmakers of resorting to "stalling tactics" to delay the passage of key legislation such as the elections law in order to stave off early elections and their impending dissolution.

"This Parliament has done everything it can to extend its life," said Maher Abu Teir, political observer and Ad Dustour columnist.

"Instead of focusing on key reform legislation, they were busy securing lifelong pensions, diplomatic passports and investigation committees that went nowhere."

Analysts also point to the inability of previous governments to locate reformist allies within state institutions and apparatuses, accusing various "forces" within the state of actively undermining reform efforts.

"There are several powers who have benefited from the old system and they will stop at nothing to prevent any changes," Kullab claimed.

With a series of critical laws and files still left untouched, analysts agree that as it convenes for the first time this week, the new Cabinet will quickly discover it will face several tall tasks along with little time or room for excuses.

"It's now or never," Maaytah said.

Consensus key

The key to reviving the country's reform process is retooling the proposed elections law, which in its current form has drawn widespread criticism from groups across the political and social spectra, analysts say.

"The elections law is the single most important step towards democracy," said Musa Maaytah, political development minister under the Bakhit government.

"If we fail to get it right, the whole reform process will have been for nothing."

Observers and political parties point to several items within the current draft law, including a quota that restricts political parties to 15 seats in the 138-seat chamber and a heavy reliance on districts, that the legislation fails to break away from a previous electoral system that have produced "weak" parliaments.

The item in the legislation that has raised the most objection from activists is a stipulation restricting eligible candidates to political parties that have been licensed before 2012, preventing the dozens of political and social movements that have emerged since the launch of the Arab Spring from taking part in the political process.

"When this should be an inclusive law, it has become an exclusive one," Maaytah said.

With the government restricted to an expected three-month transition period and authorities determined to hold early elections before the end of the year, observers say timing is of the essence.

"In order to be successful, Tarawneh will have to secure a quick consensus over the reform-related legislation in order to move forward," said Shteiwi.

Also critical to the former Royal Court chief to placing the reform process back on track is rebuilding ties with Parliament, which will determine the final versions of the political parties, elections and independent electoral commission laws.

"If Tarawneh doesn't exert his influence over this Parliament to truly form democratic and modern laws, we may find ourselves in a situation worse than the one we were in a few months ago," Abu Teir said.

Failure 'not an option'

In the 16 months that have passed since pro-reformists first hit the streets in the town of Theeban, activists have elevated their demands and slogans from "The people want the fall of the government" to "The people want to reform the regime".

With the absence of political reforms and access to the decision-making process, observers warn that any further delays in the much aligned political reform process, the sentiment in the streets may reach a "dangerous level".

"If Tarawneh fails to pass these laws, Jordan will be going into a crisis it has never seen before," Shteiwi warned.

Observers warn that failure of the new government to follow through reforms and hold early elections will result in a political power vacuum, which combined with growing public frustration over ongoing corruption and worsening economic conditions will lead to a "combustible" climate.

"Any further delays will not just be a political crisis, it may become a crisis threatening the country's stability," Kullab warned.

Amid the cycle of governments, growing public dissatisfaction and risks that the Kingdom is sliding from the Arab Spring "model" to an Arab Spring "exception", analysts say failure for Tarawneh's second go around as prime minister "is not an option".

"After running through governments, committees and dialogues the country is down to its final hope," Maaytah warned.