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Event risk thins out significantly this coming week, but that doesn’t necessarily ensure stability for the markets. This past week, a couple of comments from Fed officials and a hold by the Bank of Japan led to extraordinary volatility. If sentiment is unmoored, fear or greed can be self generating and build their own momentum.
That said, while the higher probability is of trend is with the established momentum of the past months (bullish risk), the follow through will lack as these are rich prices and record low yields. Alternatively, the lower probability ‘risk aversion’ move would likely prove an explosion for volatility.
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