Quotes: US MENA   Enter Symbol: NewsLetter: Search: advanced

Forex: Euro, Yen Higher Against US Dollar to Start December  Join our daily free Newsletter

MENAFN - DailyFX - 03/12/2012

No. of Ratings : 0
Add to Mixx!


 


ASIA/EUROPE FOREX NEWS WRAP

The beginning of the month offers new seasonal trends and a final period of trading for those investors left behind during the mid-summer rally. Indeed, if there was a time for those behind in their returns to scoop up some profit before closing the books for the year, it’s now: since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained, on average, 0.082% per trading session in December, good for an average monthly return of 1.72%. This amounts to nothing short of the (in)famous Santa Claus rally that will dominate mainstream media financial news coverage for the coming few weeks.

Boosted by some improving global PMI figures, particularly in Asia (Europe still looks weak, especially on the periphery), December has started out with a bang for global market participants, with the US Dollar underperforming on the whole, while riskier currencies like the Euro, and even the heavily manipulated currencies (then again, which aren’t these days?) the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc, are posting gains against the US Dollar.

There are two valid interpretations of today’s FX price action, which has seemingly diverged from typical correlations with other asset classes. While European equity markets and US stock futures are higher, the commodity currencies, the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand Dollars, are struggling, failing to confirm the move, suggesting that today’s price action may not be so valid; or that the outperformance by the safe havens outside of the US Dollar suggests that the tensions over the fiscal cliff/slope may be worth respecting, and a bumpier road may be ahead. We’ll be exploring the role of the other safe havens throughout this month.

Taking a look at European credit, peripheral bond yields are lower, allowing the Euro to run higher. The Italian 2-year note yield has decreased to 1.866% (-6.4-bps) while the Spanish 2-year note yield has decreased to 2.767% (-2.5-bps). Likewise, the Italian 10-year note yield has decreased to 4.380% (-10.6-bps) while the Spanish 10-year note yield has decreased to 5.152% (-13.1-bps); lower yields imply higher prices.

RELATIVE PERFORMANCE (versus USD): 11:55 GMT

EUR: 0.37%

JPY: 0.37%

CHF:0.30%

GBP:0.25%

CAD:0.18%

NZD: 0.10%

AUD:-0.02%

Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR): -0.17% (0.00% past 5-days)

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Forex_Euro_Yen_Higher_Against_US_Dollar_to_Start_December_fx_news_currency_trading_technical_analysis_body_Picture_7.png, Forex: Euro, Yen Higher Against US Dollar to Start December

See the DailyFX Economic Calendar for a full list, timetable, and consensus forecasts for upcoming economic indicators.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OUTLOOK

Forex_Euro_Yen_Higher_Against_US_Dollar_to_Start_December_fx_news_currency_trading_technical_analysis_body_Picture_6.png, Forex: Euro, Yen Higher Against US Dollar to Start December

EUR/USD: The EUR/USD closed November near its monthly high and has started December out on a positive note, which portends to further gains given seasonal tendencies. For now, however, we remain neutral, if not close to shifting to bullish for the near-term, as the daily RSI nears overbought territory ahead of a run at 2H’12 highs. Accordingly, I continue to await resolution of 1.3010/20 to the upside (breaking today) and 1.2800/40 to the downside. Below, support comes in at 1.2740/45. Above, resistance is 1.3140/45 and 1.3170/75.

Forex_Euro_Yen_Higher_Against_US_Dollar_to_Start_December_fx_news_currency_trading_technical_analysis_body_Picture_5.png, Forex: Euro, Yen Higher Against US Dollar to Start December

USD/JPY: A Bearish Engulfing bar is forming today, as failure at recent highs on Friday has led to a small pullback. As noted on Friday,Signs of progress on the US fiscal cliff/slope will remove credit risk from the USD-side of the pair, which is bullish for the USD/JPY, while continued political tensions in Japan and threats of unlimited Bank of Japan easing have heightened both central bank risk and political risk to the JPY-side of the pair, which is bullish for the USD/JPY.With US policymakers issuing partisan commentary by the end of the week, the fundamental impetus to move higher was somewhat diminishing. Support comes in at 81.75, 81.15, and 80.50/70 (former November high).Resistance is 82.90/83.00 and 83.30/55.

Forex_Euro_Yen_Higher_Against_US_Dollar_to_Start_December_fx_news_currency_trading_technical_analysis_body_Picture_4.png, Forex: Euro, Yen Higher Against US Dollar to Start December

GBP/USD: November was a wash for the GBP/USD (monthly Doji candle) but December has started with a retention of Friday’s low and a push to near-term highs in the pair. Now, the GBP/USD is back above long-term trendline resistance at 1.6030/45 (descending trendline resistance off of the April 2011 and April 2012 highs), a point of failure on Tuesday and Friday. As noted last week, “A break of this level also coincides with a tentative break of a downtrend that’s been in place for the past two months.” Resistance comes in at 1.6170/80 (late-October highs). Support is 1.5985/95 (20-EMA, 50-EMA), 1.5920/25 (100-DMA), and 1.5855/60 (200-DMA).

Forex_Euro_Yen_Higher_Against_US_Dollar_to_Start_December_fx_news_currency_trading_technical_analysis_body_Picture_3.png, Forex: Euro, Yen Higher Against US Dollar to Start December

AUD/USD: No change from Wednesday: “As the pair has traded towards its Symmetrical Triangle termination point, and appears to be making a move to the upside; when considered in the big picture, the current pause witnessed the past year or so may be viewed as a consolidation. Support is at 1.0370/1.0405 (trendline support off of the June 1 and October 23 lows) and 1.0235/80. Resistance is 1.0475/80 (November high) and 1.0500/15.”

Forex_Euro_Yen_Higher_Against_US_Dollar_to_Start_December_fx_news_currency_trading_technical_analysis_body_Picture_2.png, Forex: Euro, Yen Higher Against US Dollar to Start December

S&P 500: The view the past few days I’ve maintained: “The rally off of the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement (June 2012 low to September 2012 high) has carried the S&P 500 back into a confluence of resistance at 1400/10 (20-EMA, 50-EMA, 100-EMA). A breakout above this area would suggest a more substantial rebound may yet be ahead.” Indeed, with price trading through following Wednesday’s daily Hammer, targets higher are eyed at 1425 and 1460. Support comes in at 1385 (200-DMA, held yesterday) and 1345/50 (November low).

Forex_Euro_Yen_Higher_Against_US_Dollar_to_Start_December_fx_news_currency_trading_technical_analysis_body_Picture_1.png, Forex: Euro, Yen Higher Against US Dollar to Start December

GOLD: No change as Gold remains range-bound since the US elections: “Fresh November highs are in place after Friday’s rally, and with the US fiscal cliff/slope negotiations grinding slower, there may be some upside yet. I still expect the 1700 area to be defended vigorously on declines, and will continue to look to get long as low as 1675. Resistance is 1755/58 and 1785/1805. Support is 1735, 1700, 1690/95 (100-DMA, November low), and 1660/65 (200-DMA).”

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

To be added to Christopher’s e-mail distribution list, please fill out this form


 






  MENA News Headlines
Apr 24 2014Qatar- HH Sheikha Moza Meets Mayor of Kobe Visits RIKEN Research Institution ,Qatar News Agency
(MENAFN - Qatar News Agency) Kobe April 24 - Her Highness Sheikha Moza bint Nasser Chairperson of Qatar Foundation for Education Science and Community Development (QF) today held a meeting with the ...

Apr 24 2014Qatar- Sidra-BMC Event Boosts Biomedical Research Publishing ,Qatar News Agency
(MENAFN - Qatar News Agency) Doha April 24 - A symposium organised jointly by Sidra Medical Research Centre and BioMed Central (BMC) mulled trends in research and on open access publishing here ...

Apr 24 2014Qatar- Mannai Corp Q1 Net Profit up 73% to QR 150.1 Million ,Qatar News Agency
(MENAFN - Qatar News Agency) Doha April 24 - Qatar Exchange listed Mannai Corporation (QE: MCCS) net profit is up 73% to QR 150.1 Million for the first quarter of fiscal year 2014 ending March 31 ...

Apr 24 2014Bahraini firms forecasted to grow 10 pct ,MENAFN
(MENAFN) In a report based on a study of over 650 companies across GCC, Kuwait Financial Centre (Markaz) forecasts a growth of the Bahraini companies' earnings by 10 percent in 2014, Gulf Daily News ...

Apr 24 2014Israeli Army Storms Deir Samit Village West of Hebron ,Qatar News Agency
(MENAFN - Qatar News Agency) bron April 24 - Israeli army forces stormed at dawn Thursday Deir Samit village southwest of Hebron city in the West Bank. The Israeli forces conducted raid and search ...

Apr 24 2014Qatar Airways to add more seats on Doha-Vienna route ,MENAFN
(MENAFN) Qatar Airways plans to offer more 1.700 seats on its Doha-Vienna route beginning from September 2014, according to Gulf News. The company aims to expand the growing passenger demand from ...

Apr 24 2014Qatar- QFC Authority Five-a-Side Football Tournament Kicks Off ,Qatar News Agency
(MENAFN - Qatar News Agency) Doha April 24 - Qatar Financial Centre (QFC) Authority's first Five-a-side Football Tournament is displaying dribbling skills of executives from Doha's financial ...

Apr 24 2014Georgian Justice Minister Leaves Doha ,Qatar News Agency
(MENAFN - Qatar News Agency) Doha April 24 - HE Minister of Justice of Georgia Tia Tsulukiana left Doha on Thursday morning wrapping up a two-day official visit to the country. An agreement on ...

Apr 24 2014Egyptian Premier Off to Chad ,Qatar News Agency
(MENAFN - Qatar News Agency) Cairo April 24 - Egyptian Prime Minister Ibrahim Mehlib left cairo on Thursday for Chad the first leg of a three-day two-state trip that will also take him to Tanzania ...

Apr 24 2014Qatar Stock Exchange Down 0.05% ,Qatar News Agency
(MENAFN - Qatar News Agency) Doha April 24 - The Qatar Exchange ended in the red area when trading closed Thursday at 12954.93 points (0.05%) down 6.63 points from the previous closing of 12961.56 ...

Apr 24 2014Israeli Tanks Enter Gaza Border area ,Qatar News Agency
(MENAFN - Qatar News Agency) Gaza April 24 - Six Israeli military tanks on Thursday entered a border area in the southern Gaza Strip witnesses said. The tanks crossed into Gaza in an area called ...

Apr 24 2014President Salva Kiir Relieves his Chief of the General Staff ,Qatar News Agency
(MENAFN - Qatar News Agency) Juba April 24 -South Sudanese President Salva Kiir relieved Chief of the General Staff of south sudan army James Hoth Mai. This came in a presidential decree aired ...

Apr 24 2014Omani non-oil exports to enter African markets ,MENAFN
(MENAFN) A senior official at the Oman Chamber of Commerce and Industry (OCCI) said that the Sultanate is seeking expansion in new African markets, in a time it is looking forward to reduce its ...

Apr 24 2014US Secretary of State Meets Egyptian Intelligence Chief ,Qatar News Agency
(MENAFN - Qatar News Agency) shington April 24 - US Secretary of State John Kerry has met with the Egyptian Intelligence Chief Major General Mohammed Ahmed Fareed al-Tohami who is currently ...

Apr 24 2014Afghan Guard Shoots Dead 3 Foreigners in Hospital ,Qatar News Agency
(MENAFN - Qatar News Agency) Kabul April 24 - Three foreigners including a doctor were shot dead and their colleague wounded when a guard of a private Cure Hospital opened fire on them in the ...

Apr 24 2014Egypt's Interim President Receives Phone Call from South African President ,Qatar News Agency
(MENAFN - Qatar News Agency) Cairo April 24 - Egypt's Interim President Adly Mansour has received a telephone call from President of the Republic of South Africa Jacob Zuma in which they discussed ...

Apr 24 2014Uruguay Public Health Minister Meets HE Qatari Ambassador ,Qatar News Agency
(MENAFN - Qatar News Agency) Montevideo April 24 -Minister of Public Health in Uruguay Maria Susana Mu?iz met here on Thursday with HE qatari ambassador to the republic of Uruguay mohamed hassan ...

Apr 24 2014Sharjah Ladies Club organizes "Sharjah Ladies run" at the University City ,MENAFN Press
(MENAFN Press) Sharjah Ladies Club gears up to launch "Sharjah Ladies run" at the Sharjah University City. With over 250 participants, the activity aims to encourage women and enable them to ...

Apr 24 2014Alcatel-Lucent Enterprise to address the network application challenge with new access switch, added analytics and SDN capabilities ,MENAFN Press
(MENAFN Press) The Enterprise division of Alcatel-Lucent recently unveiled new technology to address the challenges created by pervasive mobility and the explosion of new applications being ...

Apr 24 2014King bids to reassure Saudis as MERS deaths hit 85 ,AFP
(MENAFN - AFP) King Abdullah was in the Saudi commercial hub of Jeddah on Thursday in a bid to reassure a worried public as the death toll from the MERS virus hit 85. The Red Sea city has seen a ...

more...


 
Click to Apply






Google

 
 

Middle East North Africa - Financial Network

MENAFN News Market Data Countries Tools Section  
 

Middle East North Africa - Financial Network
Arabic MENAFN

Main News
News By Industry
News By Country
Marketwatch News
UPI News
Comtex News

IPO News
Islamic Finance News
Private Equity News

How-To Guides
Technology Section

Travel Section

Search News

Market Indices
Quotes & Charts

Global Indices
Arab Indices

US Markets Details

Commodoties

Oil & Energy

Currencies Cross Rates
Currencies Updates
Currency Converter

USA Stocks
Arab Stocks
 

Algeria 
Bahrain 
Egypt 
Iraq
Jordan 
Kuwait 
Lebanon
Morocco 
Oman 
Palestine
Qatar 
Saudi Arabia 
Syria
Tunisia 
UAE 
Yemen

Weather
Investment Game
Economic Calendar
Financial Glossary

My MENAFN
Portfolio Tracker

Voting

Financial Calculators

RSS Feeds [XML]

Corporate Monitor

Events

Real Estate
Submit Your Property

Arab Research
Buy a Research

Press Releases
Submit your PR

Join Newsletters


 
© 2000 menafn.com All Rights Reserved.  Terms of Service | Privacy Policy | Contact Us | Advertise | About MENAFN | Career Opportunities | Feedback | Help