I sold AUDCAD at 1.0441 on August 14 to gain exposure to relative US versus Chinese growth expectations, with the former economy expected to accelerate this year while the latter slows. I added to the position at 1.0370 on August 24 as the down move resumed after a brief rebound. Prices appear to have resumed the down trend after taking out consolidation range support at 1.0177. Near-term support has been found at 1.0062, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, with a Hammer candlestick hinting a bounce may be ahead. I will look for the move higher as an opportunity to add to the position on signs of bearish reversal in the 1.0142-77 area. A stop-loss will be activated on a daily close above 1.0272.
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