(MENAFN- Jordan Times) Uncertainty about political and economic future is a major hindrance to economic growth. It brings about a more conservative attitude, and causes the postponement of new investments and possible expansion of present projects, waiting for the dust to settle. In our case, unfortunately, it does not seem to settle anytime soon.
The state of uncertainty covers a wide range of areas. It affects decisions about what is permissible or forbidden, about taxes, laws and regulations, which are issued or amended at the speed of light and the fluctuating political and security state of affairs and how it may look like in the near and medium-term future.
What is today illegal can become legal tomorrow simply by a surprise decision taken by the administration. Taxes may go up or down; some activists see in them a way to punish successful and profitable projects, such as those in the field of communication, mining and banking. Fines may be waived, accusations of corruption are ready to be made without having to worry about the truth. A manager can be prevented by his staff from entering his office if he does not submit to their selfish demands. Many try to extract their rights on their own, but in many cases these are simply embezzlements and exploitation of circumstances, not rights.
Uncertainty covers even wider areas. What will happen in Syria in the coming few months and what will be the consequences for Jordan? What will happen in Lebanon as a result of the Syrian developments? How does all that influence Jordan and its economy? Finally, will the promises of Arab grants materialise or continue to be frozen until further notice.
All the above and many other questions remain without answers. Possibilities are wide open.
Under such uncertain circumstances, one may ask how the economic operatives will behave. Most likely, they will reduce their activities to the bare minimum and put on hold future plans until circumstances change. It is only normal in such case for economic growth to come to a halt, if not shift to the negative side.
Certain elements of uncertainty are regional. As such, they do not lend themselves to control and must be accepted as a given. That was always the case. However, other important elements are local and must be dealt with, one way or another, without delay.
The "national" programme of economic reform, agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund, may have the answer to the local element of uncertainty.
For the first time since 2004, Jordan will have a definite and credible programme for economic, fiscal and monetary reform. It will be binding on the present and future governments. Business circles can trust the programme and base their plans on its implementation.
In this case, a lot of transparency is required. The government should reveal the full details of the agreement signed with the IMF. The contents of the programme should be common knowledge to all who may be concerned, not another element of uncertainty.
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