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MENAFN - Arab News - 22/08/2012

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(MENAFN - Arab News) If you bought Facebook shares in the May IPO and held onto them, by Monday morning you would have lost more than half your investment - and not see any encouraging signs of making your money back.

Three months after the largest tech share issue ever on US markets, Facebook fell to a new low below 19 a share, compared to the 38 underwriters charged for the 421 million shares they sold.

Although the stock bounced back to close at 20.01, IPO investors were still holding huge losses with, analysts said, not much hope of a quick reversal.
Some key investors were still cashing out - on Thursday and Friday, billionaire Peter Thiel, who invested in Facebook first in 2004, sold off nearly 80 percent of his huge holding, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission Monday.

Thiel sold his shares at average prices ranging between 19.27 and 20.69 per share after the end of the first lockup, which barred early investors and insiders from selling shares following the initial public offering. This is still a handsome profit for such an early backer of the website, but not a demonstration of confidence in the company's potential to rebound.
According to a regulatory filing, Thiel sold roughly 400 million worth of shares in the company.

The sales, in which Thiel sold roughly 20 million Facebook shares, were conducted as a result of a trading plan that Thiel entered into on May 18, according to the filing.

Thiel, who co-founded PayPal and was among Facebook's earliest backers, still owns roughly 5.6 million shares of Facebook.

Accel Partners, a Silicon Valley venture capital firm that was also an early backer of Facebook, distributed roughly 75 million Facebook shares to the limited partners and general partners of its various funds on Thursday, according to another filing. The move allows those partners to sell or hold on to their distributed Facebook shares as they see fit.

Facebook raised 16 billion when it went public on May 18, giving it a nominal market value of a stunning 104 billion and raising hopes of a new dotcom boom on US markets.

The company's business promise was huge: marketing access to the 900 million users of the world's leading social network and data about them that marketers prize.

But analysts said the large number of shares sold, the high IPO price, and the overall skittishness of investors in a soft overall economy, have undermined market support for the company.

"They just put way too many stocks out at once... before the market was ready to absorb so many shares," said Michael Pachter of Wedbush Securities.

The price struggled around the 30 range in the weeks after the issue, with the underwriters undergoing a beating and lawsuits for allegedly having privately lowered their earnings forecasts for the company days before the IPO.

The shares then fell to the low-20s range at the end of July when Facebook issued an uninspiring quarterly earnings report.
And last Thursday the price plummeted when a ban on pre-IPO investors such as Thiel selling their shares was lifted - many apparently sold.
That lockup applied only to 270 million shares.

Another 1.2 billion shares, those controlled by Facebook employees, will be freed from lockup on November 14.

While undoubtedly Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg and other top figures will hold on to most of their shares, anything added to market liquidity is, at this point, downward pressure on the price.

Analysts are debating whether the stock is now a bargain based on Facebook's earnings potential.

"Over the long term, the trade is about the fundamentals of the business, and the fundamentals remain very positive," Pachter told AFP. He called the problem of a share oversupply "just noise."

Social media expert Lou Kerner also downplayed the selling pressure. "We remain very positive," he said. "Facebook will figure how to monetize mobile, the dollars will find their way."

New York University finance professsor Aswath Damodaran was more skeptical.

After Facebook's quarterly earnings report, he cut his original 27 a share "intrinsic value" estimate to below 24.

"The earnings report was a disappointment to markets, revealing less revenue growth than anticipated and an operating loss."

But at 19, he still is not sure of the investment's merit, given the potential overhang of sellers.

"Facebook remains a company with vast potential (their user base has not shrunk), no clear business plan (is it going to be advertising, product sales or something else) and poor corporate governance," he wrote on his blog Musings on Markets.

"Eventually, the 'intrinsic' truths will emerge, but it may be a long time coming."
Another longtime bear on the stock, Trip Chowdhry of Global Equities Research, retains deep doubts even at 19 a share.

"Facebook doesn't have the technology to monetize social actions," he said.
"With what we know right now, the price should be in the low teens."


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