(MENAFN- Jordan Times) Despite its public posturing, the Muslim Brotherhood remains open to reversing its recent boycott decision, analysts say, warning that a series of miscalculations by the government and the Islamists are preventing the two sides from reaching common ground.
Ending months of speculation, the Muslim Brotherhood followed through on Thursday its election boycott threats hours after the Senate's approval of an amended law that failed to alter a one-person, one-vote electoral system that the opposition claims places political parties at a disadvantage.
In their statement, the Islamists pledged not to turn back on their decision barring the government's acceptance of a series of "preconditions", namely the withdrawal of the current Elections Law and constitutional amendments paving the way for parliamentary governments.
"We have not changed our demands in the last 18 months; we demand constitutional amendments and a law based on proportional representation. These are also the demands of the Jordanian people," said Hamzah Mansour, head of the Islamic Action Front, the Brotherhood's political arm in Jordan.
Yet despite the public posturing and bold statements, observers claim there lies a true desire by the Muslim Brotherhood to take part in the polls, with a growing willingness to "ease" its conditions over participation.
An inside source at the Brotherhood confirmed that.
"There is a debate over what concession the movement can offer the government," said the source, who preferred to remain unnamed.
He said the main proposal currently being considered by movement leaders is offering to lift its demands for constitutional amendments in return for an electoral system they believe will boost its chances in upcoming elections.
Analysts say some decision makers too are willing to grant concessions, such as withdrawing the current Elections Law, in a bid to sway the Islamist movement and prevent a nationwide boycott that would mar the legitimacy of upcoming polls.
"There is talk among decision makers of calling another extraordinary session to amend the law or even postpone the elections," said Mohammed Abu Rumman, an expert in the Islamist movement and researcher at the University of Jordan's Centre for Strategic Studies (CSS).
Despite the mutual desire to avoid the election boycott, observers claim an ongoing "atmosphere of mistrust" is preventing the two sides from meeting face to face.
The Islamist's move to boycott the elections even after amendments were introduced to the Elections Law left Prime Minister Fayez Tarawneh "incensed", observers say, and convinced the government that the Muslim Brotherhood is unwilling to meet authorities "halfway".
"There is a sense among decision makers that if the recent amendments won't sway the Brotherhood, nothing ever will," said Musa Shteiwi, CSS director.
The Muslim Brotherhood, meanwhile, points to the sudden reversal of a warming of ties during the tenure of former prime minister Awn Khasawneh and the "disappointing" amendments as proof that authorities are insincere in their reform pledges.
"If we see a true will for reform, we are more than willing to enter a dialogue with decision makers," said Zaki Bani Rsheid, deputy overall leader of the Muslim Brotherhood.
"But we don't know who is making the decisions in the country."
'Miscalculations'
According to observers, far greater obstacles than a lack of trust stand between the Muslim Brotherhood and participation in upcoming polls.
Over the past few weeks, observers say the government and Islamists have both committed a series of "fatal" miscalculations and overestimated their positions of strength, leading to both sides holding firm on their positions and jeopardising the Kingdom's political reform in the process.
Emboldened by the Islamists' rise to power in Egypt, Tunisia and elsewhere, analysts say the Muslim Brotherhood has raised its demands to an electoral system that guarantees "no less" than 50 per cent of the Lower House seats.
"The Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood has looked around the region and seen their movement rising to power, country by country," Nasouh Majali, former information minister, said.
"They believe that as time goes by they will only grow stronger and eventually the government will cave in to their demands."
Observers say that Islamists are guilty of another "fatal" miscalculation by believing that by being the Kingdom's largest organised political party, the election's legitimacy hinges solely on their participation.
"The Islamists believe that as the largest political party, they can force the government to tailor the Elections Law to their demands," Shteiwi said.
"But what they don't seem to understand is that there are many social and political forces willing to take part in elections under a one-person, one-vote system, and the elections can go on without them."
The government too has made a series of misjudgements by underestimating the Islamists' influence in the Kingdom's political scene and believing that successful elections can be held without the participation of the country's largest political force.
In light of last week's boycott decision, observers claim Tarawneh has turned his attention instead on popular movements and other political movements out of a belief that their participation will render the polls a success.
As part of its efforts to reach out to the popular movements, observers claim the government is reviving a previous strategy to drive a wedge between Islamists and other political forces by hinting that the Muslim Brotherhood are set to take part in elections and that their boycott decision comes as a ploy to "clear the field" of potential challengers.
"The government believes if it can separate the Islamists from the popular movements and other political parties, these elections will be a success," said Maher Abu Tair, political observer and Ad Dustour columnist.
"After issuing unpopular decisions to raise fuel and electricity prices and its refusal to take popular movements and the opposition seriously, I believe they will find this easier said than done."
Convinced that elections can be held without the Muslim Brotherhood, observers say a coalition headed by Tarawneh and security services is pushing for the polls to be held under the current electoral system.
"If the prime minister has his way and the Elections Law remains unchanged, there is no way the Islamists will take part in the elections," Abu Rumman said.
Unless Tarawneh is willing to reverse his stance on the Elections Law or the Muslim Brotherhood eases its preconditions, observers warn that the country is on course for a nationwide boycott threatening to derail the political reform process.
"A breakthrough should be reached soon; otherwise, we are going to have failed elections this year," said Abu Tair.
"No matter who comes out the winner in those elections, all of Jordan will lose."
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