(MENAFN- Khaleej Times) When Libyans finally go to polls today, local and global businesses and investors will be anxiously scrutinizing the event from the sidelines.
The electoral contest, which will lead to the formation of a 200-member general national congress, is not just the gateway to democratisation for the war-torn country, but will also determine its economic prospects. Libya currently sits atop vast oil wealth - the largest known reserves in Africa, according to experts - and contracts for local and foreign oil companies will largely depend on the electoral choices of the populace.
It's definitely a critical moment for the North African country. Democracy - what thousands of Libyans spilt their blood for during last year's gory revolution - is finally at its doorstep. But whether free and fair elections will actually bring a stable political system and lay the foundation for economic progress is debatable.
Rebuilding the state in post-revolution Libya has been a painful process, marked with sporadic outburst of violence. The rebel groups responsible for bringing an end to Gaddafi's 41-year-old rule hardly classify as democrats, willing to peacefully compromise and negotiate amongst each other. In fact, after the fall of Libya's dictatorship, these groups have turned into vigilantes and gangsters, who prowl and plunder in the near absence of the state's coercive power.
Moreover, the interim government - National Transitional Council - has been far from effective in implementing peace and order in the country. Just last week, rebel militias in Benghazi - the place where the resistance against Gaddafi was birthed - stormed the local election commission and set voting slips on fire in retaliation for lesser representation in the forthcoming elections. Thus, fears that the forthcoming electoral process will be tarnished by violence, have promulgated the interim government to deploy 13,000 troops along with aircraft and naval vessels to ensure security.
Yet, despite these security arrangements, Libya's future seems far from peaceful. Elections in the oil-rich country will most likely be similar to those in post-war Iraq. Libya too, like Iraq, has the overwhelming responsibility of building its political institutions from scratch from the ruins of war. So it likely that even in Libya's case, elections are likely to prop up a contentious political setup based on sharp tribal and regional divisions. Moreover, in an environment where people are desperate to realise their political aspirations after four decades of repression, some indignant political groups are likely to think that elections did not fairly represent them. Thus, the propensity for violence and economic instability remains high in post-election Libya.
Only patience, compromise and conciliation will make Libya's leaders pave the way for a democratic and stable country. Because, if the country gets locked in provincial power struggles after the elections, there is a real danger that anarchy and economic gloom will prevail.
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