(MENAFN- Jordan Times) The projections of the international institutions for the expected growth rate of the Jordanian economy this year range from a minimum of 2.1 per cent to a maximum of 2.8 per cent. These projections are, of course, undependable. More likely, they will prove to be wrong.
Such percentages are obviously low. They do not satisfy the country's basic economic and social needs, especially when it comes to generating jobs, badly needed to accommodate newcomers to the labour market, let alone reducing the stock of unemployed.
At the moment, one should not miss the rather favourable domestic and international circumstances, which may help overcome some internal fiscal challenges, especially in the vital area of energy.
Petroleum prices are declining worldwide while domestic fuel prices are rising, which will reduce the huge gap that used to prevail between the two cases. This development will reduce the huge cost of fuel subsidies and, consequently, revise down the exaggerated budget deficit this year and the next. One cannot rule out the possibility that fuel will become a source of revenue for the budget.
If the promises of the Gulf countries to finance Jordanian medium- and large-scale economic projects are honoured, and if the expected generous Saudi grant to the budget is realised, this year will pass peacefully, without having to go through the shortages resulting from the worst-case scenario we all have in mind.
The minister of planning rightly warned that this is the time to think of long-term solutions to approach fiscal self sufficiency rather than manage out problems on yearly basis.
In this respect, analysts should not ignore the positive indicators which evolved during the first half of the year as preliminary evidence that economic recovery is under way.
Major examples of such indicators are the 16 per cent growth in tourism receipts, a 2 per cent increase in expatriates' remittances, a higher activity in the real estate market, a sizeable increase in the budgets' domestic revenue, a 5 per cent growth in industrial output and last but not least, the continued strength of the Jordanian dinar and the stability of its exchange rate.
These encouraging signs should not tempt the government to sit idle and wait for the miracle to take place on its own. On the contrary, the government should feel assured that due to improving indicators, it will reap tangible results for the reform measures it is taking.
Those who opposed the economic reforms, including but not limited to reduction of subsidies, will have to apologise for their resisting reforms only to score points in cheap popularity.
In other countries of the world, an economic crisis means sustaining negative growth of the gross domestic product. By contrast, growth continues in Jordan but at a lower rate.
The difference between prosperity and recession in our case is confined to the level of positive growth, which is low at the time of recession and high at the time of prosperity.
The Jordanian economy experienced negative growth only in one year, namely 1989-1990 when the large-scale crisis took place. The economy resumed positive growth since then at a high rate exceeded only by the growth rates in China and India.
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