Retail forex speculators remain almost exactly flat the British Pound against the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR), giving us no real short-term trading bias on the GBPUSD. In fact positioning is almost exactly unchanged since last week—an especially rare occurrence that highlights choppy trading in the British Pound.
Given a broader long-term US Dollar uptrend, we would argue that any major British Pound strength against the Greenback should likely be sold. Yet we see little justification for a fresh short-term position amidst neutral retail sentiment. Currencies tend to make their highs and lows at the beginning and end of the month. Such seasonal forex tendencies suggest July could offer an opportunity to once again sell the GBPUSD.
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--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com
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