(MENAFN - Kuwait News Agency (KUNA)) Qatar National Bank (QNB) said risks of eurozone breakup and gloomy new global economic data point to an even worse outcome than the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's (OECD) forecasts.
The OECD has recently forecast that global growth easing to 3.4 percent in 2012, down by one percentage point from its projections a year ago, and similar to the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) April forecast.
QNB said Saturday there were differences in economic performance between eurozone and the US although both were following austerity policies. However, the American private sector succeeded in slashing debts since 2008 which triggered consumption growth, while the eurozone still suffering from high debts in public and private sectors.
QNB attributed improvement in the US to its legal and cultural structure which allowed correction measures faster than those in the European Union (EU).
The OECD forecast outlines a three-track global economy. It sees a mild recession in the Eurozone (contracting by 0.1 percent in 2012), weak growth around at two percent mark in most other OECD countries, led by the US, and about double that performance on average in emerging economies.
QNB assumed a scenario in which eurozone and global economy broadly muddle along without a serious crisis. In particular, it assumed that there were no "destabilising developments" in eurozone over the next two years.
However, this scenario is challenged by a recent but growing consensus that a Greek exit from the Eurozone is now highly likely within the next year, possibly within months.
On June 4th, Standard and Poor's credit ratings agency assigned a 33 percent probability to a Greek exit, and even higher odds were implied on spread betting markets.
The outcome of the Greek elections on June 17th may affect only the timing of this exit. An increase in the number of seats going to anti-bailout parties would increase the likelihood of an early exit, but the opposite result might only delay the event.
