(MENAFN - Jordan Times) On the eve of the projected Arab summit in Baghdad, on March 29, doubts are rife about its chances of success.
The venue itself is problematic. The last time Arab heads of state met in the Iraqi capital was more than 20 years ago, in May 1990, when Saddam Hussein was perhaps the most powerful leader in the region. Iraq had just emerged from a long and devastating war with Iran. Baghdad symbolised unity, resistance and regional influence. It had fought a war on behalf of a Sunni Arab world against Shiite Iran.
Few months later, Saddam would commit a fatal mistake, invading neighbouring Kuwait and thus unleashing a series of geopolitical events whose effects are with us until today.
Baghdad is a different city today. Arab leaders, at least those who decide to attend, would be greeted by Prime Minister Nouri Al Maliki who symbolises the political dominance of Iraq's Shiite majority. In contrast to the last summit held in Baghdad, it, today, is closer to Tehran than to some Arab countries.
The convening of the summit, which was not held last year because of the political turbulence sweeping the Arab world, should represent a major victory for Iraq's new rulers. It is held in a country that was the victim of an illegal Anglo-American invasion and occupation until few months ago.
The host of the 1990 summit was toppled and later executed under a plan to impose regime change on an Arab country by foreign powers. Arab attendance of the summit should close the books on that dark and controversial period. But Baghdad is not a beacon of freedom and democracy. Iraq remains a dangerous place, afflicted by sectarian violence and ethnic divisions. Its political system is barely functional and it is considered by many as a failed state.
Still, the summit will take place in the aftermath of one of the most important political events in recent history, the Arab Spring. The region has changed dramatically in the last year or so, and the Arab League appears as an anachronistic institution that is barely capable of reflecting the seismic changes that took place.
Baghdad's political weight has been altered, and the summit will be held without Syria and certainly with the representatives of the transitional governments of Egypt, Libya and Yemen.
Arab League Secretary General Nabil Al Arabi said that leaders will be discussing the Syrian crisis and the Palestinian cause. While the Arabs are divided on the former, little is expected to be achieved on the latter.
At the same time, those who hope that the summit will discuss means to restructure the Arab League so that it reflects the new regional realities will be disappointed.
Iraq hopes that about 12 or 13 leaders will make it to the summit. Its immediate concern will focus on providing security for its guests and not so much on arriving at historic resolutions. Syria is a divisive issue on which the host disagrees openly with others, namely Saudi Arabia and Qatar. The basic minimum that can be expected is to reiterate support for previous resolutions and extend backing for the mission of UN-Arab League mediator Kofi Annan.
On the Palestinian issue, the Arabs will reaffirm their support for a negotiated settlement based on the Arab Peace Initiative while calling on the international community to assume its responsibility in standing up to the illegal Israeli measures in the occupied territories. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas will receive all sorts of verbal patronage, but in the absence of a breakthrough in concluding internal reconciliation he will be facing pressures as well.
One thing is certain, and that is that the Baghdad summit will be anything but remarkable. Egypt will be busy preparing for its presidential election, the first since the toppling of Hosni Mubarak. Libya, Tunisia and Yemen have enough domestic problems of their own. The Gulf countries will find it difficult to demonise Iran when the host has special relations with Tehran, and attempts to discuss the uprising in Bahrain will be foiled by the GCC group.
What will be interesting, though, is to see how the summit addresses the phenomenon of the Arab Spring. Unless the new leaders of Tunisia, Egypt and Yemen attempt to make it a main subject of deliberations at the summit, chances are that most leaders will want to avoid it. Such attitude will underline how outdated the Arab League is as a representative of Arab hopes and aspirations.
The Arab Spring remains a controversial subject for millions of Arabs. It certainly warrants the attention of the entire region, and perhaps the rest of the world. The future of countries that went through the tests of popular uprisings and regime change represents the biggest challenge to the region.
The swift rise to power of moderate and conservative Islamists in these countries is an event of earth-shattering consequences. The questions of democratic transition, pluralism, human and women rights, civil society, federalism and decentralisation, Sharia and even secularism have never been so crucial to the people of the region and their immediate future.
It is unlikely that such debates will take place at the Baghdad summit. But if the Arab League is not the right venue to discuss such existential issues that matter for millions of Arabs, then where else?
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
