(MENAFN- Kuwait News Agency (KUNA)) WASHINGTON, Nov 15 (KUNA) -- It is unlikely, but if President Donald Trump's administration decided to tear up the nuclear deal, going to war with Iran would probably be the next step, according to experts at a conference held here Wednesday.
"It's now pretty clear that it's not going to happen," said former National Security Council special assistant under the Obama administration Phillip Gordon. His remarks came while on panel of a conference by the Middle East Institute, titled "Conflicts, Costs, and Policy Pathways".
When Trump decertified the deal in October, he gave Congress 60 days to decide whether to reinstate economic sanctions on Iran that was lifted under the deal.
"He has found a way to not blow this up because I don't think they have a suitable response if they do," Gordon pointed out, as he compared the situation to threats made against Iraq before the war began in 2003.
Meanwhile, Deputy Assistant to President George W. Bush and national security adviser for combating terrorism during Bush's second term Juan Zarate commented that although Trump says that there are problems with the deal's fundamental base, it does give the US "some assurances." It is a 10-15 year deal, so there will likely be amendments and fixes that will keep it from remaining static. Therefore, "the idea of fixing the deal should not be dismissed outright," said Zarate.
"There are a bounty of ways to pressure Iranians in the context of current deal and outside the deal, which we haven't really done," he said. "There's ways of fixing pressure and maintain the deal to meet interest of Iranians and others that want the deal." On his part, former Special Presidential Envoy to the coalition to counter the so-called Islamic State John Allen stressed, "It's like North Korea, we have options but we probably don't want to follow through on them." Additionally, since the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is an agreement that includes countries such as China and Russia, the US has to "be very careful about throwing it out on certification." Allen echoed that if the US decides to reinstate the lifted sanctions on Iran, it could jeopardize several American companies that are looking at billion dollar deals, which would in return boost the US economy.
This week, the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed that Iran is complying with the deal. However, the next time Trump has the chance to waive sanctions will be on January 15. "What's he going to do?" Gordon questioned. (end) ak.hb
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