Will the multilateral trade deal survive with TPP's new name?


(MENAFN- Gulf Times) Eleven countries that formed part of the original Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade pact have decided to go ahead with the multilateral deal, after US President Donald Trump ditched it, but its success depends on whether the bloc members can achieve the intended free and open trade among the $12tn anchor consumer market.
During the last few days, the leaders of the nations that would enter the multilateral trade pact, minus Canada, have been closeted in talks on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) summit in the Vietnamese resort of Danang to help the deal survive without the United States.
The deal, which still needs to be finalised, would now be called the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
TPP's progression to CPTPP is said to be a reflection of the high environmental and labour standards in the deal, including the ability to take enforcement action against countries that breached those provisions.
President Trump has already made it clear that he prefers country-to-country agreements rather than multi-nation deals such as the TPP. He is also lobbying for the removal of barriers to investment from US companies.
TPP was one of the centrepieces of former President Barack Obama's so-called Asia 'pivot, an economic, political and military realignment toward a region seen as key to America's future.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership was originally conceived as a trade and investment agreement among Pacific Rim nations such as Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, the US and Vietnam.
On some measures, the trade deal would have been the 'largest ever outside of the World Trade Organisation (WTO)—it was meant to cover 40% of the global economy.
Interestingly, two major emerging economies China and India, have been left out of the TPP trade negotiations with some experts already warning that the multilateral trade deal might adversely affect them.
Partly to counter China's growing dominance in Asia; Japan had been lobbying hard for the TPP pact, which aims to eliminate tariffs on industrial and farm products across the 11-nation bloc whose trade totalled $356bn last year.
To reach agreement on pushing ahead with the deal, some 20 provisions of the original agreement will now be suspended.
But any kind of deal looked doubtful at the weekend, when the TPP leaders' summit was called off after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau did not attend.
After initially seeming to deliver a critical blow to the fate of the deal, Canada later returned to the table, apparently due to persuasion by other member countries.
Canada, which has the second biggest economy among remaining TPP countries after Japan, had said it wanted to ensure an agreement that would protect jobs.
The TPP has a new name and it looks like getting a new lease of life in Vietnam, but the question remains whether the multilateral trade deal will be compelling enough without the US, the largest and the most attractive economy in the world.
Also, the CPTPP still has many loops to jump, including legislative approval by all of its 11 proponents.

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