Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 10 Oct 2017


(MENAFNEditorial) Bullion counter may trade on positive path as weaker greenback and safe haven demand can give support to the prices. Meanwhile movement of local currency rupee will give further direction to the prices. Gold can move in range of 29300-29700 while silver can move in range of 39000-40000 in near term. Gold prices rose early on Monday, pulling further away from a two-month low, as fresh concerns over North Korea's nuclear ambitions stoked safehaven demand for the precious metal and weighed on the dollar. The dollar held steady against the yen on Monday, having retreated from 12-week highs set last week, due to a renewed focus on geopolitical risks amid concerns that North Korea may be preparing another missile test. North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un said his nuclear weapons were a "powerful deterrent" that guaranteed its sovereignty, state media reported on Sunday, hours after US President Donald Trump said "only one thing will work" in dealing with the isolated country. Hedge funds and money managers reduced their net long positions in COMEX gold and silver contracts for the third straight week, in the week to Oct. 3, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed on Friday.Gold bounced up from a two-month low on Friday, on concerns stoked by a Russian report that North Korea is preparing to test a long-range missile and on support from the U.S. dollar's shift into negative territory. Earlier, bullion fell to a two-month low at $1,260.16 an ounce on an upbeat reading of the U.S. unemployment rate and wage growth last month that supported expectations for a further U.S. interest rate hike in December. This pushed the dollar and Treasury yields higher. Gold prices have fallen 0.5 percent this week and are facing their fourth straight week of decline, the metal's longest run of weekly losses this year. Holdings of the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Shares, have fallen 13.6 tonnes so far this week, their first weekly outflow in nine weeks and the largest since late July. Demand for physical gold in India improved slightly this week because of a correction in local prices, but restrictions on the industry and increased smuggling took the sheen off the bullion market.SPDR Gold Trust GLD, the world's largest gold-backed exchangetraded fund, said its holdings stood at 856.08 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day. Holdings of the largest silverbacked exchange-traded-fund (ETF), New York's iShares Silver Trust SLV, stood at 10129.51 tonnes, remain unchanged from previous business day.Indian authorities withdrew on Friday an amendment that made jewellers subject to anti-money laundering legislation and caused a drop in gold sales. The Prevention of Money Laundering Act obliges banks and other financial institutions to report all cash transactions above 50,000 rupees ($765) to the government, including customers' personal identification numbers or tax codes.

✍ BASE METAL
Base metals complex may witness some profit booking at higher levels. China markets have opened today after week long national day holidays. Copper may trade in range of 433-442. Aluminum can move in the range of 138-142 in MCX. Nickel can move in range of 685-710. Lead can hover in the range of 163-169. Zinc may move in range of 213- 218. Meanwhile, metals found support as the dollar edged back from more than two-month highs as immediate concerns about North Korea's long-range missile capabilities receded. Business activity in China's services sector grew at its slowest pace in 21 months in September as the pace of new business cooled, a private survey showed. The survey was in sharp contrast to an official gauge of the non-manufacturing sector that showed the services sector expanded at the fastest clip since 2014 in September, blurring the picture on how a key part of the economy is performing. Hedge funds and money managers reduced their net long positions in COMEX copper futures and options for the fourth straight week, in the week to Oct. 3, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday. Copper registered its largest weekly gain since late August, underpinned by expectations of strong demand from top consumer China, though a strengthening dollar capped price rises. The metal used in power and construction has risen more than 20 percent this year and was on track for a 2.9 percent weekly gain. The U.S. currency was set for a fourth consecutive week of gains, helped by expectations of a U.S. interest rate rise in December. A stronger dollar makes industrial metals more expensive for holders of other currencies, potentially dampening demand. Zinc prices have risen more than 26 percent this year as a Chinese crackdown on polluting industry curbed output, with inventories in LME warehouses dropping to their lowest since 2009. U.S. employment fell in September because of the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, but the unemployment rate and wage growth suggested an improving labour market.Indonesian President Joko Widodo called for faster progress to wrap up a deal with FreeportMcMoRan Inc on rights to the giant Grasberg copper mine, which the U.S. firm owns, officials said on Friday. The chief executive of the world's biggest publicly traded copper company which under a framework deal agreed in August to divest 51 percent of the mine held talks with officials in Jakarta earlier in the day. The U.S. Commerce Department said on Thursday it would defer issuing its preliminary determination in an anti-dumping duty probe into imports of aluminum foil from China. The department said in a statement the delay would allow it "to fully analyze information pertaining to China's status as a non-market economy (NME) country.


✍ ENERGY
Crude oil may open on flat note as it can trade in range of 3200-3280. Crude oil prices gained in Asia on Monday with investors focused on fairly busy week of data points on supply and demand. Crude oil prices gained in Asia on Monday with investors focused on fairly busy week of data points on supply and demand. In the week ahead, market participants will eye fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products on Wednesday and Thursday to further weigh what the impact of recent storm activity was on supply and demand. The market is also waiting on President Donald Trumps decision on Thursday on whether or not to certify Irans compliance with the international nuclear deal. The Persian nation is an OPEC member and key Middle Eastern oil producer. Last week, oil prices plunged on Friday, snapping a multi-week bull run amid renewed oversupply concerns, with investor attention shifting to a potential disruption to crude production and refining capacity in the Gulf of Mexico as Tropical Storm Nate bore down on the region. Natural gas may move in range of 185-192. Oil futures fell more than 2 percent on Friday, ending Brent crude's longest multi-week rally in 16 months as oversupply concerns reappeared as producers have started hedging future drilling. Russia clarified remarks made by President Vladimir Putin about the oil market earlier this week, saying he did not propose extending a global oil output cut deal but said he recognised it was a possibility. The prospect of extended oil production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers led by Russia had supported prices in recent sessions

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