(MENAFN- The Peninsula) By Satish Kanady / The Peninsula
After the initial wobble, Qatari economy is fast adjusting to the impacts of capricious blockade imposed on it by the quartet Arab countries, fresh data released by different entities has revealed.
The National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) yesterday said both Qatari imports and exports rebounded to the pre-crisis levels. 'The Qatari economy has begun to normalise after the initial shock from the embargo imposed by some of its GCC neighbors.
After plunging by around one-third in the months following the blockade, the value of Qatari goods imports rebounded by 39 percent month-on-month in July to QR8.7bn, taking them back close to pre-crisis levels. Exports also rebounded, albeit after a more modest post-embargo fall, NBK said yesterday.
The recovery reflects the authorities determined efforts to find alternative trade routes for goods previously sourced/destined for Saudi Arabia and the UAE. New shipping routes were opened with countries including Oman, Pakistan and Turkey. Some of the rise in import values, however, could reflect the higher cost of shipping products from these farther away markets, NBK analysts said.
NBK's disclosure is followed by Qatar Chamber's Saturday confirmation that the country's non-oil exports had jumped by 35 percent from the pre-siege levels in August.
Reinforcing Qatar's resilience to more than a three-month long blockade, the Ministry of Development Planning and Statistics (MDPS) yesterday announced Qatar's GDP, both in terms of real and nominal, picked up during the second quarter (Q2, 2017), a period that covered the entire span of the ongoing blockade. MDPS' preliminary estimates suggest Qatar's nominal GDP rose by 8.5 percent in Q2, 2017, while the real GDP edged up 0.6 percent, on year-on-year.
Qatar's growth pick-up is in contrast with the contraction of Saudi Arabia's economy in the first two quarters this year. Saudi Arabia's General Authority for Statistics figures show that the country's gross domestic products shrank by 2.3 percent in the second quarter compared with the first three months of 2017. Saudi's GDP for the first quarter contracted by 3.7 percent compared with the last quarter of 2016. In a note sent to The Peninsula, ICAEW said Oman's economy is enjoying a modest boost as shipments, normally bound for Qatar via GCC ports, use Omani ports instead. ' Oman's economy is receiving a short-term boost as a result of the country's neutrality in the diplomatic stand-off between Qatar and other GCC economies. Neutrality has meant Oman has become a key transit point for cargo previously routed through other ports, specially Dubai., ICAEW said.
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Figures released by Sohar Port and Free Zone show the number of vessels docking rose by 16 percent in 2017 Q2 versus Q1, and by 18 percent versus 2016 Q2. This rise in traffic is especially notable in the context that sanctions were only imposed in June, the final month of Q2. The impact in subsequent quarters could be even larger.
However, Qatari stock market is yet to shrug off the market excuses. The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) benchmark index is down 20.4 percent on year-to-date. But analysts expect some technical rebounds in the fourth quarter of 2017.
Analysts at Al Masah Capital said geopolitical tensions coupled with lack of news flow will affect regional markets for the coming period. Regional markets ended the last week of the month and the quarter mainly on a negative note, with six out of the eight indices being in the red which was backed by the lack of catalysts to move the markets.
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