(MENAFN- Alghad Newspaper)
Most estimations indicate the US Administration of President Donald Trump has abandoned the military solution in Syria. This decision is based on three primary developments in Syria.
First, there is the ceasefire in Daraa, Suwaida, and Qunaitra, and the deployment of Russian monitory forces in these areas to keep the peace and sustain ‘De-Escalation'.
The Amman Accord, which prefaced the launch of the model De-Escalation (Safe) Zone in the Syrian south, has also laid foundation for reconstruction and economic revitalisation.
More so, it also increases the chances of the refugee's return to Syria.
Second is the shift in the military situation in Syria; the reality of the Syrian armed opposition has changed.
Next to the disintegration of several of its components, instead of focusing on overthrowing the regime, the armed Syrian opposition is being pushed to fight ‘terrorist' groups. They are being directed to not obstruct the advancement of Syrian forces.
Meanwhile, the Syrian army, significantly backed by Moscow, has actually made considerable advancements on multiple fronts.
However, the situation North of Syria is becoming more complex by the day. As the Syrian army advances to secure the country's borders from all directions, the fact remains that the situation in the North has more to do with the Kurds than it has to do with Turkey.
Coming to agreement with the Kurds in Syria is crucial to securing the borderline with Turkey, rather than with Ankara, whose position on Damascus has often fluctuated.
The third primary development in Syria is the US announcement to discontinue CIA support programmes, which have helped arm and support ‘moderate' armed opposition factions.
Four years ago, the US CIA programmes were launched at a cost of hundreds of millions US dollars. Now, it is worth next to nothing.
American Foreign Affairs analyst, Fabrice Balanche, described the US administration's decision to suspend the programme as a pragmatic surrender to the military reality.
In his analysis, published by AlGhad, in Arabic, Sunday, he mentioned that Jordan had suspended support of the armed factions in Syria three years ago.
Moreover, Jordan has shut down its borders with Syria, suspending all military support inbound via the Kingdom to the rebels.
This was after Jordan, Russia, and the Syrian regime signed an agreement in September, 2015, to cease fire in Daraa.
As a result, Jordan has instructed the affiliated armed factions in the Syrian South to stop fighting the Syrian army and focus on combating terrorist groups.
‘Foreign Affairs' has provided information to reaffirm Jordan's announced policy over the last couple of years, which puts the fighting terrorism in Syria and the region above all else.
These three developments in Syria are primary in the crystallising reality across our Northern borderline.
Despite fundamental differences between Moscow and Washington, the two were able to construct a realistic approach in Syria. One which may preface the end of the war there, despite the intensifying rivalry between the two powers in other global premises.
Right beforehand, Washington had decided to forego of its previous call to oust Syrian President Bashar Assad.
Now, the US officially no longer supports the removal of Assad as prerequisite for political resolution.
Perhaps a final agreement on this has not been formulated yet, but both Russia and the US have crossed a significant distance to realise a long-term cooldown in Syria.
In the meantime, during this cooldown, these parties will have to focus on fighting terrorism, and reorganise their own ranks to be part of a sustainable political settlement.
Parallel to this, the Syrian regime will have to contain the Kurdish situation before it explodes once Raqqa is liberated.
Such a scenario is neither favourable nor acceptable to either one of the internal and regional players, except for Iran.
As for the Arab Gulf countries, whom have been sponsoring armed factions in Syria for a while, they seem to be completely excluded from the game.
This article is an edited translation of the Arabic version, published by AlGhad.
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