(MENAFN- Gulf Times) On June 23, Saudi Arabia and three of its close allies (United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Egypt) issued an onerous 13-point demands to Qatar as conditions for lifting a weeks-old trade and diplomatic embargo of the country.
Over a month ago, on May 8, after attending a large healthcare conference in Qatar, I flew from Doha via Abu Dhabi (UAE) to Los Angeles, by Etihad Airlines. Who could have thought then that in a month these two prosperous Arab countries on the southern coast of the Gulf to be so torn apart, to the extent that, according to a recent decree which the UAE has issued, any UAE citizen writing a public statement showing sympathy towards Qatar or any bias of the situation will be punishable with up to 15 years of jail time!
The flight from Abu Dhabi, after a slight left turn, flew straight path over the blue waters of the Gulf, crossed the Iranian territory all the way to the Caspian Sea, before making a left turn over Baku. Being able to see the motherland and passing over the areas of my childhood life, Tehran and the plush green coast of the Caspian Sea on that clear spring day, all in less than 2 hours! while sipping coffee with teary eyes, was an experience of the lifetime, thanks to the geography and Etihad's Boeing 777 and its caring crew.
Given the current heated geopolitical climate in the Gulf and recent ruptures and rifts among its littoral countries, it is important to recognise that the eight countries surrounding this body of water have a shared interest when it comes to the safety and sustainability of the Gulf's natural resources. The nexus of food, water, and energy that it provides is a fragile one, and serves as the life support of the surrounding countries, providing a significant fraction of their critical resources.
Desalination along the Gulf has escalated dramatically over the last few decades to secure reliable water supplies, representing nearly half (45%) of the world's desalination capacity. 2010 statistics show that the fraction of drinking water sourced from the Gulf water was: Qatar 99%, UAE 95% and Kuwait 95%, to name a few. Most of these countries only have enough water in storage for a 2-3 day supply in the case of an emergency [1]. The Gulf is also a critical food source for these surrounding countries, with some of the highest seafood consumption rates in the world located in this region, e.g. 2011 statistics: UAE 28.6kg/yr vs. USA 6.8kg/yr [2]. In addition to being a food and water source, the Gulf serves as a well-known nucleus for oil and gas production, with several of the top 10 oil producers in the world located in this region (Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait and Iran).
Moreover, there has been rapid investment to expand the region's nuclear power industry, with 4 nuclear power plants scheduled for operation by 2020 in the UAE, 16 nuclear power plants planned in Saudi Arabia over the next 25 years, and 2 more planned in Iran over the next 10 years. This adds another layer of risk and complexity with usage of the Gulf water as a cooling source for these plants.
The aforementioned food, water, and energy sources derived from the Gulf are thus inherently interdependent on each other, raising challenges in ensuring the future safety and security of the 168 million people living in the countries surrounding the Gulf.
The region has a long and rich history of shared cultural and religious values that emphasise a deep respect for the area's natural resources and its people. This is a promising foundation to work towards common grounds (or better to say, common water) necessary collaboration between all surrounding countries to ensure critical resource security and continued prosperity.
At this sensitive juncture in the history of the Gulf, its people should rise above the present divisive sectarian politics, or at least, initiate a parallel Track II diplomacy to the seemingly non-working (or stagnated) existing Track I diplomacy. Their governments should allow, enable and encourage their scientists and engineers to initiate their collective efforts. In fact, according to a UK scholar, even during the Napoleonic Wars of the 19th century, French and British scientists maintained working contact.
The Gulf people's shared habitat and long-term joint fate should be the driving force behind their unity in action: A joint task force could be the next step in continuing this tradition of protecting the area's resources, by collaborating on multiple levels between research communities, policymakers, and government entities. Given the unparalleled importance of resource stability and the introduction of a new complexity in the form of nuclear power, it is vital to implement a multi-faceted strategy to secure these resources collectively, and to be able to mitigate the risk of any unforeseen challenges that may arise from the increased fragility of the region.
Due to its critical mission, the above task force should be as inclusive as possible. It should include the other two littoral countries of the Gulf Iran and Iraq in addition to members of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), which is a regional organisation comprised of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Although, according to a recent study by the influential US think tank, RAND Corporation, 'the six states comprising the GCC do not always share a common threat perception or agree on the precise contours of the policy response (The Outlook for Arab Gulf Cooperation, 2016), however, there is precedence that perceived external imminent threats can bring them together. Exhibit A: The establishment of the GCC Peninsula Shield Force (PSF) in 1984, as a joint military force, can be used as a precedent and model in this context. And the newly appointed energetic Saudi crown prince Mohamed bin Salman, as the future Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, and as one of his first grand acts and demonstration of his bold leadership, magnanimity and goodwill toward all Muslims in the region, could extend invitation, convene and host the first meeting of the task force in the holy city of Makkah. No Muslim could and would refuse the gracious invitation to visit Makkah for Umrah and attend such a crucial meeting.
Be it as it may tyranny of geography or power of destiny, the fates of quarreling Gulf countries are inseparable and intertwined; at the end of the day, regardless of the politics of their alliances with external powers, they must live together in the same region. Therefore, they should be thinking about and preparing for the unthinkable, by coming together and co-operating. A large-scale natural or man-made disaster in the waters of the Arabian Gulf would not recognise national boundaries, political blocs, sectarian divide or government decrees; its lingering long-lasting aftermaths in 2030 could easily convert crown prince Mohamed's 'Vision 2030 to an unattainable, nightmarish mirage.
* Dr Najmedin Meshkati, a professor of engineering and international relations at the University of Southern California (USC), was a Jefferson Science Fellow and Senior Science and Engineering Advisor, Office of Science and Technology Advisor to the Secretary of State (2009-2010). He conducts research on roles of human performance safety culture in complex, large-scale technological systems' accidents.
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