Equity Research Report Ways2Capital 24 April 2017


(MENAFNEditorial) NIFTY - Last Trading session of previous week Nifty 50 fell by 0.52%, the index opened at 9226 made high of 9246 and closed at 9151 after making low of 9145. As Government released Industrial production data for the month of Feb at - 1.20% where expectation was 1.3% and January IIP Numbers were at 2.70%. Consumer price index for the Month of March released at 3.81% where Expectation was at 3.98% and February Consumer Price Index was at 3.65%. Nifty closed in negative territory for the third consecutive day at 9139 after making a low of 9120.

The Index opened at 9145 on Monday trading session and made a high of 9160. As of Now Market may also look into Indian Meteorological Department first official Forecast about Trajectory of Monsoon this Year. Any forecast of deficient Rainfall because of looming Threat for EI-Nino may also Spoil the Bull Party in the Coming days. Indian Meteorological Department released its Long Period Average first stage data in which the department has predicted normal monsoon in Southwest. The World Bank & IMF predicted tepid GDP Growth for India in FY-18 as 7.2% on the back of Demonetization / Full Remonetization concerns, Stressed Banking Non-Performing Assets , PSBS recapitalization issues, tepid loan growth, issues of stressed corporates, and lack of vital policy / Reforms implementations in a time bound manner These all are the trigger for the Market in near term.

The benchmark Index Nifty 50 on Wednesday traded in narrow range of 45 points, the Index opened at 9112 and made a high of 9120 and closed at 9104 after making a low of 9075. on the back of Donald Trump has signed an executive order on stricter enforcement & review of H1B visa - this visa has been used by the technology industry to bring "highly skilled" foreign workers into the US, thus giving them a price advantage. Most of the sessions was very range bound in the absence of any major fresh Domestic or Global triggers in this week. Some Regulatory Concern on Chinese stock Market, mixed set of Quarterly Earnings & Political Uncertainty over french and British election would be main trigger for the Market in upcoming week trading sessions. The Nifty to trade in bullish trend 9220 would be the important level for Index break above can witness the 9300-9360 levels. on the Fillip side Sustaining below 9180 may drag the Index towards 9008-8916 in Near Term.

BANK NIFTY : - Bank Nifty last week made new record high of 21787 and closed at 21687, the index made a low of 21396 and traded in a narrow Range of 167 points from high of 21743 and low of 21577. Bank Nifty closed at 21647. From last two weeks the Bank Nifty has rallied almost 700-890 points and made a high of 21947 on Tuesday trading session. The Public Sector Banks were in demand on the hopes of an earnings recovery and Reports of more Public Sector Banks consolidations after State Bank of India merger, though its still at very Preliminary Discussion Stage. Market is expecting an effective Resolution of Stressed Assets & Consolidation of Public Sector Banks in the coming days and along with that, hopes of a good Q4FY17 report card may be the prime reasons for such strength in Bank Nifty, although looking quite stretched valuation. Indian market sentiment was further boosted after some reports of an imminent Net Performing Assets policy announcement by the Government PSBS rallied quite smartly on the buzz. But, later RBI Dy Gov confirmed that it may take some more time for a definitive new NPA policy; meanwhile RBI will do more oversight or implementation of various existing NPA resolution mechanism. Bank Nifty to trade in 21330-21780 range. The Significance Support is 21260-20880 and Resistance is 21704-21988 for Bank Nifty.
NSE - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
✍ TOP NEWS OF THE WEEK

Paris replacing Mauritius as tax haven, Citi alerts Finance Ministry - Citi, once perceived as a master in regulatory arbitrage, has drawn the Governments attention to Paris emerging as a new tax haven with Mauritius losing its charm. In a recent meeting with officials of the finance ministry, Citi pointed out how some global banks and funds are taking advantage of Indias treaty with France to escape tax, sources in the financial market told. In the past few months, a few leading Foreign Portfolio Investors have set up shop in Paris to attract offshore investors and issue participatory notes derivatives sold to foreign investors keen to trade in Indian stocks. Till March 31, Mauritius was the preferred location to carry out such business. But this changed with the revision in the tax treaty between India and Mauritius: there will be capital gains tax on Indian securities bought by any Mauritius entity on or after April 1.

Modi government's GST reform an 'act of courage': IMF chief - Describing the ongoing Goods and Services Tax reform as an "act of courage", IMF chief Christine Lagarde today said she expects "some positive outcome" as a result of the decision. The GST reform is really an act of courage," Lagarde told reporters during the annual Spring meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. It really means reforming in-depth in each of the Indian States in order to substitute the State taxes with overall federal tax, the re-allocation of it and the digital platform that supports it, she said. So, I am personally impressed by the work that is being done in that regard and expect some positive outcome.

CPI Inflation Seen at 4.8% in FY18, fears exaggerated: Report - Retail Inflation is expected at 4.8 per cent for the current fiscal and fears in this regard are exaggerated as the country will continue to witness benign prices, says a report. According to Report Ecowrap, The Reserve Bank's inflation forecast of 4-4.5 per cent will be "materially undershot" as CPI inflation is unlikely to breach the 4 per cent mark till July this year. According to official data, inflation at the wholesale level eased to 5.7 per cent in March on declining fuel prices and appreciating rupee. "The decline was accentuated by decline in fuel and power inflation and manufactured products. It may be Noted that fuel prices were significantly cut on March 31, while the rupee has been on an appreciating trend since February 2017. These two factors have pushed down fuel and manufactured product prices," it said.

Economy to grow 7.2% in FY18; GST to have positive impact: World Bank - Having seen a "modest setback" due to demonetisation last fiscal, the Indian economy will claw back to 7.2 per cent growth this financial year and rise further to 7.5 per cent in 2018-19, says a World Bank report. In its report on South Asian Economy, the World Bank said that "significant risks" to economic growth could emanate from fallout of demonetisation on small and informal economy, stress in the financial sector and uncertainty in global environment. Also, a rapid increase in oil and other commodity prices could have a negative implication for the economy, it added. The country's economic growth is expected to see an uptick at 7.2 per cent this fiscal and further accelerate to 7.5 per cent in 2018-19, the report said.


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