(MENAFN- DailyFX) Talking Points:
US Dollar looks to Fed-speak, ADP data to inform policy outlook Euro will probably overlook Augusts"; flash Eurozone CPI report Yen fell as Japanese stocks rose in Asia, NZ Dollar outperformed Fed-speak continues to be in focus as the spotlight turns to commentary from Eric Rosengren, Charles Evans and Neel Kashkari, Presidents of the US central bank";s Boston, Chicago and Minneapolis branches, respectively. If their remarks fall in line with the hawkish tone on display from Chair Yellen and Vice Chair Fischer in recent days, another up-shift in the projected Fed rate hike path may offer fresh fodder continued US Dollar gains. Augusts"; ADP Employment report is also on tap, with expectations pointing to a 175k gain in payrolls compared with 179k added in the prior month. The ADP outcome is a notoriously inconsistent indication of what may happen when official US labor-market data cross the wires but the markets may prove responsive anyway if the outcome deviates from expectations to large extent. An upside surprise will probably bode well for the greenback, and vice versa.
Flash Eurozone CPI data headlines the European data docket. The headline year-on-year inflation rate is expected to tick higher to 0.3 percent, up from 0.2 percent recorded in the prior month. The release seems unlikely to generate attention from the Euro unless a particularly dismal downside surprise stokes speculation about imminent ECB stimulus expansion.
The Yen underperformed in overnight trade as Japan";s benchmark Nikkei 225 stock index advanced, sapping demand for the anti-risk currency. The New Zealand Dollar proved strongest on the session, trading higher alongside the island nation";s government bonds. This hints the move reflected an increase in demand for NZD-denominated assets, which may speak to reach for yield and thereby imply a near-term improvement in risk appetite.
Losing money trading in the FX market? This might be why.
Asia Session
GMT CCY EVENT ACT EXP PREV 23:01 GBP
GfK Consumer Confidence (AUG)
-7 -8 -12 23:01 GBP
Lloyds Business Barometer (AUG)
16 - 29 23:50 JPY
Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (JUL)
2.25% - 2.04% 23:50 JPY
Industrial Production (MoM) (JUL P)
0.0% 0.8% 2.3% 23:50 JPY
Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL P)
-3.8% -3.0% -1.5% 01:00 NZD
ANZ Activity Outlook (AUG)
33.7 - 31.4 01:00 NZD
ANZ Business Confidence (AUG)
15.5 - 16 01:00 AUD
RBA's Debelle Gives Speech
- - - 01:30 JPY
BOJ Board Member Funo Speech
- - - 01:30 AUD
Private Sector Credit (MoM) (JUL)
0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 01:30 AUD
Private Sector Credit (YoY) (JUL)
6.0% 6.1% 6.2% 01:45 CNY
Westpac-MNI Consumer Sentiment (AUG)
111.5 - 114 03:00 NZD
Money Supply M3 (YoY) (JUL)
6.3% - 5.9% 04:00 JPY
Vehicle Production (YoY) (JUL)
-4.1% - -1.0% 05:00 JPY
Housing Starts (YoY) (JUL)
8.9% 7.3% -2.5% 05:00 JPY
Annualized Housing Starts (JUL)
1.005m 0.992m 1.004m 05:00 JPY
Construction Orders (YoY) (JUL)
-10.9% - -2.4% 05:00 JPY
Small Business Confidence (AUG)
46.3 - 47.8
European Session
GMT CCY EVENT EXP PREV IMPACT 06:00 EUR
German Retail Sales (MoM) (JUL)
0.5% -0.1% Medium 06:00 EUR
German Retail Sales (YoY) (JUL)
0.3% 2.7% Medium 06:00 CHF
UBS Consumption Indicator (JUL)
- 1.34 Low 06:00 EUR
ECB's Villeroy speaks at Frankfurt event
- - Low 06:00 GBP
Nationwide House Px (MoM) (AUG)
-0.2% 0.5% Medium 06:00 GBP
Nationwide House Px NSA (YoY) (AUG)
4.8% 5.2% Medium 07:15 USD
Fed's Rosengren Speaks on Panel in Beijing
- - Medium 07:15 USD
Fed's Evans Speaks on Panel in Beijing
- - Medium 07:15 EUR
ECB's Praet speaks on Panel in Beijing
- - Low 07:55 EUR
German Unemployment Change (000's) (AUG)
-4k -7k Medium 07:55 EUR
German Unemployment Claims Rate SA (AUG)
6.1% 6.1% Medium 09:00 EUR
Eurozone Unemployment Rate (JUL)
10.0% 10.1% Medium 09:00 EUR
Eurozone CPI Estimate (YoY) (AUG)
0.3% 0.2% High 09:00 EUR
Eurozone CPI Core (YoY) (AUG A)
0.9% 0.9% High
Critical Levels
CCY Supp 3 Supp 2 Supp 1 Pivot Point Res 1 Res 2 Res 3 EUR/USD 1.1036 1.1096 1.1119 1.1156 1.1179 1.1216 1.1276 GBP/USD 1.2967 1.3027 1.3053 1.3087 1.3113 1.3147 1.3207 --- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email, please SIGN UP HERE Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: @IlyaSpivak
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