Brexit embers glow bright against gloomy outlook
Date
7/10/2016 9:19:46 AM
(MENAFN- ProactiveInvestors - UK) Accendo Markets , Thu
FTSE 100 called to open +55pts at 6525, with a late recovery seeing it recover to trade above 6500 and hold 6520 support overnight. While yesterday''s southerly foray to 6440 was a concern, the 100pt rebound (and the fact we held above the recent major breakout level) bodes well for Bulls hoping for a second leg higher after a brief pause. Bears point to falling highs and lower lows since Friday/Monday (down channel) possibly sending us back to test 6400. Watch levels: Bullish 6545, Bearish 6510.
The positive opening call comes despite another weak session in Asia, although they are off their lows. This as the embers of Brexit concern glow as bright as ever and markets digest a dovish set of Fed minutes suggesting labour market concerns even in the run-up to a Brexit vote that was seen having global implications. S & P also cut Australia''s credit outlook to negative due to the deadlock election and government policy implementation issues. Haven assets still very much in demand based on an uncertain outlook.
US stock markets closed with modest gains overnight after paring earlier losses on positive macro data and a bounce in the oil price. The FOMC minutes gave markets little more to chew on, since they related to a meeting that took place before the UK''s Brexit vote. Nonetheless, worries about inflation being too low are likely to lead thought concerning US monetary policy going forward and point towards a ''lower for longer'' interest rate environment. This type of thing tends to be good for equity markets.
Crude price strength came after API data showed a bigger than expected 6.7m barrel drawdown in US stockpiles. Note analysts expect today''s more closely watched EIA print to show a 2.5m barrel draw. Will it confound like the API did?
Gold remains in a shallow uptrend while precious metals miners are still on a tear. Rising lows since 24 June are still supporting the yellow metal which continues to provide an alternative to volatile currencies and deflation. The gold miners, however, are shooting up so quickly it''s hard to see that trend continuing unabated.
In focus today: UK Halifax House Prices are seen showing slower growth in June which may in part be explained by a Brexit-inspired impact that would only add to the woes inflicted on the property sector after 7 UK property funds gated investors from requesting redemptions as it would require selling properties, thus contributing to a market slowdown.
UK Industrial and Manufacturing Production for May are seen slowing considerably in May, plunging in fact, even before Brexit, which may see analysts re-evaluate Q2 growth forecasts (and indeed those for Q3 and Q4) following the Brexit vote.
In the afternoon, with the US June Jobs report so close the warm up act of ADP will be looked for signs that an NFP rebound is on the cards tomorrow to assuage US economic slowdown fears, but note those dovish Fed minutes even in the run-up to the UK''s Brexit vote. Thereafter, with US API Oil Inventories showing a big drawdown last night, a similar result for EIA data could push oil prices higher.
On the slate for speakers today we have Eurogoup head of Finance Ministers Dijsselbloem around the European open followed by ECB minutes around midday. The ECB''s Villeroy and Constancio talk in the afternoon and any comments about the state of the region post Brexit could move markets.
Accendo Markets