Janet spurs rather than spooks
Date
5/31/2016 5:50:27 AM
(MENAFN- ProactiveInvestors - UK) Accendo Markets , 10:24
FTSE 100 called to open flat at 6270, still in the midst of sideways consolidation, but with a welcome test of last week's 6280 ceiling and a close venture to 6300. This keeps the Bulls hopeful that we are building up before another up-leg via bullish patterns (triple-bottom reversal, bullish flag). An overnight bounce from the 6250 channel lows reinforces the optimism. Watch levels: Bullish 6305, Bearish 6240.
The flat opening call comes as markets ease their way into the new week following market holidays in the UK and US yesterday. Markets seem more at ease with the prospect of a Fed Summer rate hike after Fed Chair Janet Yellen reiterated the possibility after the European close on Friday. Note a largely positive Asian session overnight as Japan's Nikkei bounced on better than expected April Industrial Production and Household Spending data that suggests economic recovery persists in spite of a disruption from the Kyushu earthquake. A weaker JPY also helped.
Australia's ASX is the lone loser - ignoring a strong Chinese rally; best session in 2 months - as the Aussie dollar rallied to the detriment of exporters as the US Dollar index edged back from last week's highs and commodities prices held firm around recent lows, even if Oil made its way back north towards the $50 mark.
US markets were closed yesterday, like their UK counterparts, with futures indicating a flat open this morning. Following Wednesday's bullish breakout, the Dow Jones sits pretty much mid-way between the floor of its 6-week sideways range and the April high of 18,169. The Index is currently holding up around 17,910, while short-term technicals suggest a little pullback towards support at 17, 890 - on a USD rally and pricing in of a summer US rate hike - could be on the cards.
Crude oil prices are still up around the $50 level, with hindrance in the form of a USD basket having found support again at the rising trend line dating back to Feb 2015. In terms of the USD, this keeps the uptrend from 3 May intact, while in terms of commodity prices there should remain some downwards pressure. A quiet few days for crude should prevail as markets anticipate the OPEC semi-annual meeting scheduled for Thursday, with production set to resume in the Canadian oil sands offsetting significant supply outages elsewhere to keep global supply more or less flat.
Gold is pausing at the rising trend line from Dec lows of $1047, having sold off through May on rising USD strength. Potential for a good bounce upwards on a potential bullish hammer reversal, yet note the $1218/$1220 levels would need to be broken to make this a strong signal. Still highly dollar-sensitive too, with any fresh indications of a June or July US rate hike sure to trump the technicals.
In focus today will be the fallout from Fed Chair Yellen's Friday evening comments where she reiterated that a rate hike could be warranted in the next few months if US data continues to improve. With this in mind, expect a raft of US data this afternoon to garner much attention. This morning watch out for French and Italian CPI seen improving in May ahead of the Eurozone Print which is seen posting doing the same. German and Eurozone Unemployment expected unchanged. Note also the need to digest a host of mixed regional PMI prints from yesterday.
This afternoon we see updates for US Personal Income and Spending and inflationary clues having a chance to sway sentiment on Fed rate hike timing. S & P Housing data is seen solid for March. After some disastrous US manufacturing prints of late, what the Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed deliver could spice things up if they manage to improve in May as consensus expected. Consumer Confidence is seen improving in May, in-line with what the Uni Of Michigan confirmed on Friday.
Accendo Markets