Three names are being circulated as possible replacements one of them being the son in law of the president. None looks likely to have a political power-base distinct from that of President Erdogan: one being a close friend and another his son-in-law now energy minister. As happened in 2014 President Erdogan will probably handpick his choice a single candidate who will then be voted in by the AKP membership at a special party conference on May 22.

Though the AKP spokesmen say the party is not considering holding fresh general elections some observers in Ankara predict that it may yet do so in an attempt to get the voter backing needed to give President Erdogan his presidential constitution. With all three opposition parties in very serious disarray the AKP may now be able to get the 400 seats in parliament which it failed to do in June 2015. That would enable it to push through a new constitution without holding a potentially much more risky referendum.

Does Davutoglu’s fall matter?

How far does the dropping of Davutoglu matter? On most points of Turkish foreign policy and in other areas probably relatively little. Erdogan already takes all key decisions and Davutoglu's role was confined to nuances in the actual application of policy.

Both men are pious Islamic religious conservatives: at election times Davutoglu's supporters greeted him with the call to prayer 'Allahu akbar' and he has close links with the Muslim Brotherhood in particular one reason for his unfaltering support for the anti-Assad opposition in the civil war in Syria. What he did not share was Davutoglu's administrative pragmatism and very slight hints that if allowed to operate on his own he might have acted in a more conciliatory fashion. Advisers around Erdogan a tight cluster of hardline supporters in the presidential palace want tougher more uncompromising policies and in particular to see Turkey emerging as the leader of the Islamic world in a partnership with Saudi Arabia and Qatar. They do not understand the need for flexibility and concessions which Davutoglu seems to have perceived.

Signs that Davutoglu was on the way out have been growing steadily over the last ten days with anonymous accusations on the Internet from AKP insiders that he was “disloyal” to the president. Last weekend Davutoglu was stripped of the power to control appointment of AKP provincial chiefs across the country. On Wednesday evening he was dismissed by the president. No grounds have been given but it seems that Davutoglu's face no longer fitted the monolithic style favored by Erdogan for executive presidential rule. Erdogan's supporters have indicated that when Turkey does move to a presidential system the office of prime minister is likely to be dropped. Moves to set up the executive machinery needed to run the country via the president are believed to be well under way with teams of civil servants inside the presidential palace shadowing each government ministry and perhaps preparing to take over control of them when the time comes.

Victim of strong presidency