A 'crude' rally or the real thing
Date
4/21/2016 4:19:35 AM
(MENAFN- ProactiveInvestors - UK) Accendo Markets 09:02
FTSE 100 called to open +15pts at 6425 with an overnight bounce off 6400 suggesting the round number turned supportive allowing the index to take another leg higher towards 6600 holding this week's accelerated uptrend. The Bulls will be looking for fresh multi-month highs today. The Bears might get excited by any breach of 6400 but likely need a drop below 6350 to put the April rally in jeopardy. Watch levels: Bullish 6450 Bearish 6395.
The positive opening call comes as Asian stocks post decent gains outperforming those from Europe and the US yesterday. The driver is continued gains by Oil and Metals (despite a bounce by the US dollar) with Brent topping a $46/barrel price last seen end-November thanks to a more supportive outlook and Chinese equities steadying their recent sharp declines.
Japan and Australia on the rise thanks an easing in currency strength and led by the Energy and Mining sectors as Oil and Metals prices maintain their northerly recovery courses. China benefiting from a steadying of nerves improving data (GDP housing) an FX benefit via a slightly stronger USD as well as bullishness derived from improved commodity prices and despite persistent debt worries.
US Markets remain on the front foot after a positive Wednesday session saw crude prices rally again. Signs of a strengthening market pervaded the oil space as US inventories grew slightly less than expected while data from the EIA suggested slightly lower US output. While said bullishness could be effectively countered by the sheer bloody mindedness of other power-wielding producers like Russia Iran and Saudi Arabia the data are encouraging and have brought buyers out of the woodwork. Simply put when people are buying the price goes up.
Macro-wise US data came in mixed with Home Sales jumping along with Mortgage Applications indicative of higher consumer confidence while the jobs market looked to have cooled a little in March. American Express reported posting Q1 profits down a smidge. Total revenue was up however slightly ahead of consensus. Coca-Cola's own Q1 results disappointed with a strong USD and weak demand from Europeans who value their teeth seen denting profits.
Gold is showing strength this morning along with precious metal peers (Silver made 11-month highs overnight) and industrial metals like copper. If the USD continues to break upwards today and risk appetite continues to improve we'd expect a cap on more upside for Gold around the $1263 level. Currently $1257.
In focus today will be UK Retail Sales seen posting contracting growth in March. The big event of the day however will be the ECB policy update and while no change to rates or QE are expected President Draghi may have another go at some forward guidance to talk the EUR down in his press conference. Maybe he'll be more successful than he was last month.
US data includes the Chicago and Philly Fed which may deliver mixed results although the US Leading Index may have jumped higher. Eurozone Consumer Confidence and US House Price growth seen pretty much flat. Results out from Alphabet (Google) BNY Mellon General Motors Microsoft and Schlumberger could well dictate sentiment.
Accendo Markets