Oil and Fed minutes maintain risk appetite
(MENAFN- ProactiveInvestors - UK) Accendo Markets 09:28
FTSE 100 Index called to open +10pts at 6170 having extended the bounce from 6060 lows to 120pts/2% and 6180 overnight highs taking us close to the ceiling of the 5-week sideways channel at 6200. The Bulls will be looking for further upside to get us up and out of the sideways shift. The bears are eyeing whether 1-week falling highs around 6190 have potential to cap gains and send us back south. Watch levels: Bullish 6200 Bearish 6155.
The positive opening call for Europe comes thanks to a jump in oil prices supporting the energy sector after US Crude inventories posted a welcome drawdown while dovish-no-rush-to-hike Fed FOMC minutes have kept a lid on the US currency to the benefit of dollar-denominated commodities.
After healthy gains by stateside bourses last night we are seeing a largely positive session in Asia thanks to a buoyant energy sector although gains are muted by continued currency strength derived from a weaker USD notably the Yen which is holding back Japan's export-heavy Nikkei. The same is true of stocks down under with Australia's ASX in the green led by energy but gains muted by a stronger Aussie dollar.
Oil prices benefiting from a not wholly surprising drawdown in US DoE/EIA Crude stockpiles. Not if you listen out for API data which comes out the evening before. This coupled with a weaker USD after the Fed FOMC minutes and rising hope that the 17 April Doha meeting will lead to an OPEC-led production freeze is seeing Brent back at $40 and US Crude at $38. We remain highly sceptical of a Doha deal with or without Iran on-board given its aim is to keep raising production following the lifting of sanctions. .
Gold has recovered from its lows back to test $1230 and 3-week falling highs thanks to the weaker USD although its gains are a little at odds with the increase in weak dollar-inspired risk appetite overnight. Could rising lows mean a breakout is on the cards or are we just narrowing into the apex of a bearish descending triangle?
In focus today we have another light data calendar with just UK Labor Costs this morning and US Jobless claims this afternoon. What we aren't short of is speakers with the ECB's Constancio talking at the European market open before the European Central Bank's own minutes this afternoon.
Thereafter listen out for the IMF Economic outlook (good? bad? ugly?) this afternoon and those holding overnight positions would do well to take into account Fed Chair Yellen speaking late tonight with predecessors Bernanke and Greenspan.
Accendo Markets
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