British Pound May Rise on UK PMI After Friday Selloff
(MENAFN- DailyFX) Talking Points:
Yen gains commodity bloc currencies fall amid risk aversion in FX space Aussie Dollar underperforms as soft Retail Sales data hurts RBA outlook British Pound may rebound on Construction PMI data after Friday selloff The sentiment-sensitive commodity bloc currencies weakened and the safety-linked Japanese Yen traded higher as risk appetite soured in overnight trade. Interestingly the moves appeared to be ignored by the equities space with Asian bourses relatively little-changed by around midday in Tokyo and Sydney. Crude oil fell alongside S&P 500 futures as well as gold prices however hinting the overall landscape may reflect pre-positioning for this week’s release of minutes from the March FOMC meeting. The Australian Dollar underperformed following a disappointing Retail Sales report. Receipts registered flat in February falling short of expectations calling for a 0.4 percent increase. The year-on-year growth rate dropped to 3.3 percent the lowest since September 2013. The currency tracked downward parallel to a drop in Australian front-end bond yields suggesting the report inspired RBA rate cut bets. Easing is not expected at this week’s policy meeting however. Looking ahead a relatively quiet economic calendar is headlined by UK Construction PMI figures. Broadly speaking UK economic news-flow has improved relative to consensus forecasts over the past two months opening the door for an upside surprise. Such a result may help encourage a recovery from the British Pound after the currency broadly slumped on Friday. That move may have reflected flows linked to portfolio adjustment for “Brexit” referendum risk at the start of the new fiscal year and the new quarter. What do DailyFX analysts expect from markets in the second quarter? Find out here! Asia Session GMT CCY EVENT ACT EXP PREV 23:50 JPY Monetary Base (YoY) (MAR) 28.5% - 29.0% 23:50 JPY Monetary Base End of period (¥) (MAR) 375.7t - 358.8t 01:00 AUD Melbourne Institute Inflation (MoM) (MAR) 0.0% - -0.2% 01:00 AUD Melbourne Institute Inflation (YoY) (MAR) 1.7% - 2.1% 01:30 AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (FEB) 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 01:30 AUD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAR) 0.2% - -1.2% 01:30 AUD Building Approvals (MoM) (FEB) 3.1% 2.5% -6.6% 01:30 AUD Building Approvals (YoY) (FEB) -9.0% -9.1% -14.5% European Session GMT CCY EVENT EXP PREV IMPACT 07:00 CHF Total Sight Deposits (APR 1) - 483.3b Low 07:00 CHF Domestic Sight Deposits (APR 1) - 419.6b Low 08:30 GBP Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI (MAR) 54.1 54.2 Medium 08:30 EUR Sentix Investor Confidence (APR) 7.0 5.5 Low 08:30 EUR ECB's Praet Speaks at in Rome - - Low 09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI (MoM) (FEB) -0.5% -1.0% Low 09:00 EUR Eurozone PPI (YoY) (FEB) -4.0% -2.9% Low 09:00 EUR Eurozone Unemployment Rate (FEB) 10.3% 10.3% Low Critical Levels CCY Supp 3 Supp 2 Supp 1 Pivot Point Res 1 Res 2 Res 3 EUR/USD 1.1182 1.1285 1.1338 1.1388 1.1441 1.1491 1.1594 GBP/USD 1.3855 1.4056 1.4141 1.4257 1.4342 1.4458 1.4659 --- Written by Ilya Spivak Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com To receive Ilya's analysis directly via email please SIGN UP HERE Contact and follow Ilya on Twitter: IlyaSpivak
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