If ever there was a loser asset class since 2011 it was emerging markets whose underperformance against developed market indices was epic. Yet I have been a tactical bull on emerging markets for the past month for six reasons. One Brazil is on a roll as the 25 per cent rise in the Brazil equity index fund attests. The smart money now believes that President Dilma Rousseff will be impeached by the Supreme Court and forced to resign. The prospect of new elections and a new reformist pro business government in Brazil (ideally with my old Wharton finance prof Dr. Arminio Fraga as Finance Minister) will mean the mother of all stock market rallies in Brazil. So I track the street protests in Sao Paulo and wonder if Carnival will flash on my Bloomberg screen this spring as the beat of the samba drums gets louder.

Two the 45 per cent spike in the oil market was the mother of all short covering rallies. As usual Dubai's DFM is the highest beta stock market in the GCC up 28 per cent since its most recent bottom. Three India's fiscally prudent Union Budget was a signal to buy Indian banks/consumer shares since RBI Governor Dr Rajan can now cut the repo rate to 6.5 per cent in April. Four the Fed ECB and Bank of Japan are all committed to reflation. When central banks reflate economies gold rises. Hence the $180 an ounce rally in gold in 2016 and silver platinum iron ore zinc and the Australian dollar have all resurrected from the netherworld. Five few Fed rate rises and a softer US dollar boosts the greenback indebted emerging markets notably Turkey Mexico India and South Africa. Six the smoke signals from Premier Li the Chinese Politburo and the People's Bank Governor have assured Wall Street that the Middle Kingdom will not use sharp yuan depreciation to export deflation to the world. This halted the meltdown in Shanghai Shenzhen and Hong Kong.

Of course all is not hunky dory in the kingdom of Global Macro. Brexit could well lead to end to the European Project and even the UK. The new Cold War with Russia means geopolitical tensions from the Ukraine and the Baltic states to Syria and Turkey. Europe's money center banks remain in peril due to negative interest rates opaque balance sheets and undisclosed losses. Mrs. Clinton Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders all talk tough love on trade protectionism and could well ignite a global trade war. A Chinese banking/credit crisis could abort the embryonic global economic recovery. An "ugly" March payroll number - say 242000 like the last month - could make a mockery of the Yellen Fed and send the US dollar and interest rates higher. After all Fed vice chairman Stan Fischer himself warned the Street about the "first stirrings of inflation" - and ignored his own words when he voted to go dovish at the last FOMC.

I concede that $25 billion has fled emerging markets dedicated funds in the past year GCC and Russian sovereign credits have been downgraded multiple times and corporate earnings growth is not a given. Valuations are also not as extreme as in January 2016 since the MSCI emerging market index now trades at 11.6 times earnings still a 25 per cent discount to developed market indices.

With a 0.86 correlation between Brent crude and GCC large cap equities (it was 0.45 in 2012!) no prizes for guessing the 45 per cent rally in black gold was a steroid shot for regional stock markets. Dubai's DFM has seen a spike in prices trading volumes and even retail investor buying. The UAE stock market has also once again become a magnet for bottom fishing offshore value funds.

In the GCC I believe Oman is deep value. So are China's H shares and Pakistan. Bank Muscat the sultanate's "too big to fail" bank now trades at a compelling 0.6 times book value at a time when the end of Iran sanctions is imminent. Note that Ominvest shares in Muscat are up 40 per cent from their recent bottom. The smart money is obviously accumulating the Blackstone of Oman!

My strategy call on the Russian rouble at 78 has proven extremely profitable now that the rouble has soared to 68.4 as I write. The Russian stock market contains at least six double or even triple baggers for 2016 the reason I might spend white nights in St. Petersburg! Indonesian equities have surged 16 per cent for US dollar investors as the rupiah is the highest beta currency in Southeast Asia.

Researched and compiled by Matein Khalid. Mr Khalid is a global equities strategist and fund manager. He can be contacted at: