Merkel takes high risk bet on Turkey in refugee crisis


(MENAFN- The Peninsula) Turkey's Prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu (C) talks with German Chancellor AngelaMerkel(R) and Britain Prime minister David Cameron (L) during the European Union summit at the EU Headquarters in Brussels on March 18 2016. AFP/JOHN THYS

By Noah Barkin

BERLIN: For months Germany's AngelaMerkel has pleaded with her critics at home and abroad to giveher just a little more time to forge a common European responseto the refugee crisis.

On Friday she got just that: a reprieve in the form of afar-reaching cooperation deal between the European Union andTurkey which if successful could turn the chaotic flood ofmigrants onto Europe's southern shores into an orderlymanageable stream.

"Today shows that Europe will manage it" she told a newsconference. "It shows we are capable of reaching common Europeansolutions and managing complex tasks."

But in winning the backing of sceptical EU partners for theagreement the German chancellor may also have expended some ofthe last political capital left after her months-long struggleto avert a Europe of closed borders fences and walls.

The agreement hammered out between EU leaders and TurkishPrime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in Brussels is highly complexand will only deliver on its promise if the EU Turkey andGreece can overcome years of mistrust and work in lockstep inthe weeks ahead.

It foresees Ankara taking back all illegal migrants who makeit across the Aegean Sea to Greece. In return the EU would takeon an equal number of Syrian refugees directly from Turkey andgive the Turks billions of euros in new funds visa-free travelrights and accelerated EU membership negotiations.

In the longer run it hinges on European states agreeing toaccept quotas of refugees from Turkey something Germany'sEuropean partners have shown little appetite for despiteoptimistic talk from Berlin about a "coalition of the willing".

So although the deal represents a triumph of sorts forMerkel who pushed it through by sheer force of will in atestament to her enduring influence in Brussels it is a victorythat could easily blow up in her face.

"Let me be clear that I don't have any illusions about whatwe agreed today" Merkel said at the end of the two-day EUsummit. "There will be setbacks. There are big logisticalchallenges that we need to overcome."

DEEPLY SCEPTICAL

The deal comes at a time when patience with Merkel's refugeestrategy is wearing thin in European capitals as well as townsand cities across Germany.

Half a year ago she agreed to suspend EU rules and openGerman borders to thousands of migrants camped out in Hungarytelling sceptical countrymen that Germany was strong enough tohandle the influx.

Her moral stance won praise at home and abroad. ButGermany's "Willkommenskultur" or welcoming culture has sincefaded with doubts growing after a spate of sexual assaults on

women in Cologne on New Year's Eve that police blamed onforeigners.

Merkel's popularity has also taken a hit as she rebuffedcalls to impose a formal cap on the number of migrants enteringGermany and condemned countries along the Balkan route from

Greece that shut their borders leaving thousands stranded.

Strong gains for the anti-immigration Alternative forGermany (AfD) party in three German state elections last Sundaystunned her conservative party. That increased pressure on the61-year-old German leader who celebrated a decade in officelast November to bed down the deal with Davutoglu the outlinesof which she sprung on surprised EU partners earlier this month.

Opinion polls show that many Germans even if they arewilling to give the deal a chance are deeply sceptical it canwork. A survey for public broadcaster ZDF on Friday showed that

79 percent of Germans doubt whether Turkey can be relied upon tohold up its end of the bargain.

Like her abrupt decision to phase out nuclear energy in2011 betting on Turkey represents a major reversal for Merkelwho has long opposed Ankara's bid to join the EU and has had a

rocky relationship with President Tayyip Erdogan for years.

"I don't know how this Turkey deal will work" said a seniorlawmaker from Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU) who requestedanonymity because of a reluctance to criticise the chancellor

publicly. "The other states are not on our side. That is ourproblem. They feel duped by Germany."

CSU BACKLASH

At home Merkel's Bavarian allies the Christian SocialUnion (CSU) are now waging an open war of words against her.

On Friday Hans-Peter Friedrich a leading CSU lawmaker andformer interior minister called on Twitter for all CDU memberswho sympathised with Merkel's refugee policies to leave herparty and join the left-leaning Social Democrats and Greens.

The deal with Turkey is unlikely to silence the CSU critics.

But the shutting of borders along the Balkan route fromGreece to central Europe has slowed the flood of migrantsentering Germany to a trickle buying her time to try to makeFriday's agreement work.

Perhaps reflecting the recent drop in arrivals the ZDF pollshowed that 53 percent of Germans approved of her refugeepolicy up from 47 percent the month before. Merkel's ownpopularity rating also bounced back in the survey.

But as German newspaper Die Zeit wrote this week her roomfor manoeuvre is getting ever smaller.

"The longer Merkel sticks to her stance the morecompromises she has to make ... and the bigger the questions andcontradictions surrounding her policies become" the weekly wrote.

Reuters


The Peninsula

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