Fed update to dictate market direction

Date

3/16/2016 5:59:49 AM

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(MENAFN- ProactiveInvestors - UK) Accendo Markets 09:08

FTSE 100 Index called to open +20pts at 6160 with the rally from yesterday's 6115 lows finding resistance at 6170 overnight before retracing to find support at 6150. This maintains the trend of rising lows over the last 24-hours. Still sideways within a 6120-6190 range. This offers hope of a breakout above 6200 to extend Feb's rally. Although that 200-day moving average (6185) remains a hurdle. Watch levels: Bullish 6175 Bearish 6145.
The positive opening call comes despite a mixed Asian session with a stronger USD ahead of the Fed update this evening and commodity weakness hampering sentiment overnight. Caution is the buzzword this morning with no change in US policy putting the onus on the Fed's policy outlook. This as Donald Trump took a significant Floridian step towards securing the US Republican presidential nomination. Can you imagine?
Equities in Japan remain in retreat underperforming regional peers after Bank of Japan (BoJ) governor Kuroda maintained his gloomy tone by telling parliament there was a chance he could cut interest rates further into negative territory with potential to see -0.5%.
The Aussie ASX is higher thanks to a weaker AUD and commodities stemming declines. Chinese stocks continue to benefit from hopes of more stimulus lower renminbi fix by the PBOC and Premier Li saying it is impossible to miss its GDP growth target thus reassuring of no hard landing for the slowing economy.
US bourses were again mixed Tuesday with underperforming indices the S&P500 and NASDAQ tracking the oil price lower and perhaps reacting to a big miss in the Empire Manufacturing data print. Elsewhere US data held up while markets continue to essentially tread water ahead of the FOMC announcement which takes place after UK market hours this evening.
In focus today we have the Fed update from which no change is expected for interest rates. This puts all the onus on any update regarding the pace of future rate hikes especially given the mixed data of late (jobs solid inflation picking up but GDP slowed). Ahead of the UK Budget (Chancellor Osborne has his work cut out to fill a surprise 18bn black hole) we have UK unemployment data although with little change anticipated wage growth may steal the show especially if it improves or deteriorates markedly.
Elsewhere on the data front US CPI will be rather interesting ahead of the Fed update with a headline figure seen easing in February but the core print holding up above the central bank's 2% target. As with the UK wage growth could well steal the show. Note also that consensus expects US Industrial and Manufacturing Production growth to have worsened in Feb. Then we have US weekly oil inventories which saw a drawdown in gasoline overshadow another Crude build last week. Potential for the same again after last night's API data showed a similar trend (gasoline -1.2M Crude +1.5M).
Crude prices continue to move south this morning so we thought it was about time someone came out and talked about an OPEC/non-OPEC meeting again. Sure enough there have been words uttered to that effect. June meeting still on the cards even without Iran. An output freeze is impossible if one of the biggest players is still increasing production.
Don't expect the oil markets to necessarily react as if that were the case (note API data indicating a smaller than expected build in US crude inventories and another drawdown in gasoline) but just in case they do Brent is pointing towards $38 and WTI $35.5.
Gold is characteristically flat ahead of the Fed statement. That could cause movements in the USD that might make Gold a better buy (or sell) for those trading it. We're not seeing much movement there until tonight.