OMG and other three letter things....


(MENAFN- ProactiveInvestors)OMG and other three letter things. I suspect a lot of bad language has been used by a lot of readers at the screen over the last week me included. Frankly it is almost completely bonkers !!  I have seen bonkers before now especially in 2008 but really time it is ultimate bonkers. The bonkers of bonkers. With new tech leverage and mad volatilty I have never seen so many sharp moves this way and that with billions wiped off market values often in just minutes. Oh and then some billions added back on the next day just because somewhere someone said something.. I remember a couple of mad weeks in Aug 2012 as well. With so many people using "leverage" - which really means they borrowed money they never had everything had to be sold to stop the bailiffs coming round to take possession of the latest Apple products. Everything gets hit as the desperate get rid and so some valuations becomes silly cheap. But the problem is with all the desperation and all the robots and all the day trading and all the credit it is next to impossible while it lasts to stay a sane sensible investor. Unfortunately to ensure one doesn't lose you have to take part which for me was some massive FTSE shorts in both spreadbets and ETF's in the ISA and I went through and sold part of a lot of things to raise cash though the very long-term trades stay in place. Using hefty shorts the idea is you can hold onto some longs especially the ones likely to bounce back and topslicing most things leaves a big cash pile to take advantage when the last seller is finally exhausted. (There there go to bed now while we sensible people can pick up some bargains). The ultimate problem though is - how can you judge when the fear has gone and when you can go back to being normal again The answer is you can't and all I do is follow it as logically as I can. And during the melee all I generally want is not to lose for now. I can make money again once it turns. Capital preservation is so important and shorting can help. But doing research for my new book on psychology did you know hardly any private investors go short They just can't do it fascinating reasons for why which I have got from plenty of research which will be in the new psychology book out in September. There is a lot in the new book on fear - to sum up the fear we have is hardly ever realised. For example the fear of being in a plane crash. I guess we fear losing all our money in the market and is shouldn't happen. Turning to what I have been up to I can't figure out what to say for the website. That's because unusually for me I had to "trade" a lot during the volatily as mentioned above with lots of topslicing shorting and then some  buying back. I As an experiment I left my sister's ISA alone she doesn't care about it as she is a squillionaire and has it for fun (ok for some right She deserves it as she works hard for it) I wondered what if you did nothing at all during volalitity come back in 6 months and see if you could have done nothing Will let you know later this year! But if you live off trading like I do I can't really take that risk. Spreadbetting was actually easier as I lobbed in a massive ftse short which helped -one big short banked me £37000. Harder in the ISA because it is such a big amount so it is like trying to apply the brakes to a massive lorry.  Worst loss point was about £60000 down because everything had tumbled and that was despite cutting way back and having a £200000 etc short. However of course it is only on paper. It might sound a lot but lucky me has a lot. I remember once the ISA going from £850000 to £750000 but it then ended up over £1m. Some paper losses have been recovered though it's still down as the amounts of buybacks were smaller than the sells. I think trying to "hedge" exactly is a mistake. So I don't generally hang onto shorts for too long. If you try to hedge you'll just end up with actually not making profits when everything recovers. If stuff goes down again then you can go short again. Not that there is any ever right "answer" to it. Trying to guess is the worst thing - such as thinking to yourself the market is definitely going to tank! Therefore I must stay in my shorts or short more. That way leads to madness if your guess is wrong. Anyhow I topsliced a lot of things including things like Paysafe (LON:PAYS)  and Worldpay (LON:WPG)  and ETO (LON:ETO) as they were tanking down and tried to buy back lower. Buying back lower is a problem as they can go lower still so when I try and get a cheap price if it carries on down I am out quick rather than using a set stop. I got some nice prices on the way down for both on the buyback - (353 for Pays) - however it did take a go or two during the melee.   Even if you like something emotions aren't for the market and so you have to be ruthless. For the site I'll make it the most recent trade for a loss of £840      . Also some sold and some bought back was NCC (LON:NCC) Softcat and Xaar. Some sold at a profit and some at a loss. I got a few CMC in the offer but with it going down I sold it sharpish for a small loss though ironically the volality will really suit it so in fact it should be well up! But I did buy some again after it went down - getting  219.2. I thought the CMC float price was fair - now wish I had stayed with the original buy too. I got some more Tritax Big Box (LON:BBOX)  in the 124p offer. I got the 3p dividend on the ones bought recently.  I got some new issue Countryside (LON:CSP) at the float price (225p)  which seems reasonable value see how it goes and give it some leeway. I've had one more bash to make money on VLK but this will be the last stab at it under my three strikes and you're out rule. I've topped up on St Ives (LON:SIV) which I have already doubled on. This one still looks like excellent value and hardly budged in the sell off (good sign). So some partial and straight sells - for the site then Xar (LON:XAR) went for a profit of £ 86   . Alu for a profit of   £760 Eqn profit of £190 Fif a profit of £522 Eto loss £1028 tef loss £498. and p2pfor a loss of £570 .  Avs for a profit of £145. Elsewhere a great performance from Quartix (LON:QTX) where I've more than doubled results Feb 29th but a fab ahead of statement and actually went up during the turbulence!! Otherwise most things went down a bit as I don't have banks or commotities it wasn't as bad as it could have been and the worst point of £60k down on the ISA is coming back. There is a problem now though! I banked the shorts as the market rose again and I have not the foggiest whether to short again or keep buying. My feeling is to move slowly now- if the market goes for another downward lunge I feel more like shorting than selling off any shares just to cover. I will just try to follow things. There is no "answer". But I do feel the portfolio is in very strong companies most paying good dividends so I am loath to sell now if I can help it. The situation is tough for now and newbies should take it very slowly and easily playing with smaller amounts. Any new buys   I  make at the mo will have a strict "get out quick" policy should the market tank again. And I'll start shorting again is that happens too for a small bit anyway. Good luck in current conditions but do remember things can get back to normal very quickly. Just remember not to be a corporal Jones "Don't panic!" Stay calm and make cool logical decisions.


ProactiveInvestors - N.America

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