Eurozone economy steady amid global turmoil, outlook uncertain


(MENAFN- AFP) The eurozone economy held steady in late 2015 despite the buffeting from global market turmoil and a sharp slowdown in China, official data showed Friday, but the outlook is clouded.

Analysts said the figures were "something of a relief" after recent weakening data had suggested a modest recovery in the 19-nation single currency bloc was running out of steam.

At the same time, the report also pointed up the risks and the European Central Bank, which has launched an unprecedented one-trillion-euro stimulus programme, may have to do even more to get the economy back on track, they said.

The Eurostat statistics agency said the eurozone grew 0.3 percent in the last three months of 2015, the same pace as in the previous quarter and in line with analyst forecasts.

For all 2015, it expanded 1.5 percent, coming in short of the 1.6 percent estimate given by the European Commission last week.

Among the major eurozone economies, Germany gained 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, unchanged from the third, while France slowed to 0.2 percent from 0.3 percent.

Italy also slowed, to just 0.1 percent from 0.2 percent as Spain led the pack with another gain of 0.8 percent.

Bailed out Greece showed a distinct improvement from a negative 1.4 percent to minus 0.6 percent but Athens remains saddled with a huge mountain of debt and it is struggling to meet the tough terms laid down in a third debt rescue agreed with its international creditors last year.

Outside the eurozone, Britain rose to 0.5 percent from 0.4 percent.

For the full 28-nation European Union, the economy gained 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter, down from 0.4 percent in the third, and expanded 1.8 percent for the year.

- Risks mounting, ECB must do more -

Howard Archer at IHS Global Insight said that while the 2015 growth rate of 1.5 percent was the best since 2011, the fourth-quarter performance was only "lacklustre" and the outlook was not promising.

"We have been expecting eurozone growth to improve modestly to 1.7 percent in 2016 but this is currently looking ever more questionable and may well need to be revised down," Archer said in a note.

"There are clearly mounting downside risks to the eurozone growth outlook coming from global growth problems and financial market weakness and volatility," he said.

Other analysts were equally guarded.

"The fact that eurozone growth did not slow in the fourth quarter provides little comfort in the current environment of global market turmoil and does not preclude the need for further decisive policy action from the ECB," Capital Economics said.

Capital Economics even warned that it may have to cut its already low 1.2-percent growth forecast for this year.

"We have pencilled in growth of 1.2 percent in 2016 but the recent turmoil in global financial markets and signs of renewed stress in peripheral eurozone (countries) have increased the downside risks even to our forecast," it said.


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