Oil shocks and price swings


(MENAFN- AFP) The roller coaster of oil prices.

- 1973: The Yom Kippur war and first oil shock -

On October 16, 1973, ten days after an Egyptian/Syrian offensive is launched against Israel, six Gulf OPEC members raise oil prices by 70 percent. It is the first time since the oil cartel was formed in 1960 that crude producers hike prices without an agreement with major oil companies.

Using oil as a political weapon, they also decree an embargo against Western countries considered pro-Israeli, causing prices to spike and triggering an unprecedented global oil crisis.

By December, a barrel of crude costs $11.65 or four times more than in September.

- 1979: Fresh panic on the markets -

Amid the combined effects of the Islamic revolution in Iran and the subsequent 1980-81 Iran-Iraq war, global crude production declines, fueling a fresh surge in prices.

Already by late 1979, this second oil shock boosts prices to $40 a barrel.

Consumer countries react by promoting energy conservation and diversifying sources.

- 1986: Price war -

Amid a global economic slump, crude oil prices fall from December 1985 through late 1986 despite several output cuts because OPEC cannot get non-member producing countries to go along.

Kuwait and Saudi Arabia decide to unleash a price war by opening their oil taps and flooding the market. The price of a barrel plunges to just $8.0 and forces non OPEC members to curb production.

Prices then climb to just above $40 a barrel in late 1990, just before the first Gulf War breaks out.

- 1997: Ooops -

In November 1997, OPEC decides to raise output by 10 percent, without taking the Asian financial crisis into account. Prices fall by 40 percent, and dip below $10 a barrel at the end of 1998.

OPEC struggles for nearly a year and a half to sort out its mess, slashing output even as demand bounces back. In September 2000, traders pay $32 for a barrel of crude.

During the fateful week of September 11, 2001, a barrel drops to around $30 dollars, and global prices end that year below $20.

- 2004-2007: Geopolitics, Katrina team up for a third shock -

Starting in mid-2004, oil prices surge higher owing to a troubled geopolitical environment that includes attacks on production sites in Iraq, increased turbulence throughout the Middle East, and social unrest in Nigeria and Venezuela, two big oil producers.

In October 2004, the price of a barrel shoots past $50 and it spikes to more than $70 in August 2005 after Hurricane Katrina slams oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico. That surge is dubbed the world's "third oil shock."

- 2008: All-time record at $147 -

In January 2008, prices breach the psychological barrier of $100 a barrel owing to a fall in US crude oil stocks and strong economic growth in China.

In the following months, prices climb further as the US dollar falls in value against key currencies. Most oil deals are done in dollars.

On July 11, the price of crude oil reaches a record high of $147 a barrel.

- 2008-2009: The subprime crisis -

Within a period of five months, oil prices plunge by two-thirds, hitting $32 in December 2008 during a severe global economic recession triggered by a crisis in so-called subprime loans in the United States.

Oil output cuts help prices rebound in early 2009 however, and in late June they stand above $73.

- 2011: Libyan conflict fuels prices -

The suspension of Libyan output amid a civil war drives prices up by 35 percent between January and March 11, to $127.

A second peak comes in February 2012 after Europe slaps a trade embargo on Iranian crude.

- 2015-2016: -

Ample supply of crude oil pushes prices back down by more than 30 percent in 2015 and by another 20 percent at the start of 2016.

A barrel that cost $110 in mid 2014 now fetches just $30 as demand has fallen off and Iranian supply comes back online after sanctions against Tehran are lifted.


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