(MENAFN- The Journal Of Turkish Weekly) We have conducted an extensive interview with Prof. Ofra Bengio on one of today’s hot topics: developments in Turkish-Israeli relations. Here she comments on the reasons for the recent move toward rapprochement between the two and their potential motivations to restore relations referring to energy issues and regional threats as factors of particular importance.
How do you interpret the fact that Turkey and Israel have resumed official contact and what do to think of the positive statements released by the two since the beginning of summer 2015?
I am a bit skeptical about the possibility of the two upgrading their relations to the pre-crisis level mainly because of domestic problems in Turkey and the fact it is still uncertain where Turkey is moving in the global context. Still it is also very difficult to predict anything at this time considering the fact there is another round of elections in Turkey in November in which President Tayyip Erdogan tried to rally the nationalists to his camp by maintaining his distance from Israel. Accordingly in my opinion until the November elections there was no chance for any significant degree of positive change.
On the whole however we need to differentiate between the economic and political levels of Turkish-Israeli bilateral relations. On the one hand economic relations are quite good there is no problem here; on the other hand political relations are still stuck where they were left years ago maybe not at the level to which they sank after the Mavi Marmara incident but still there hasn’t been too much progress.
Similarly on the popular level while in the past few years Israelis refrained from visiting Turkey as tourists because of the crisis this year Israeli tourism to Antalya has increased significantly. If people to people relations are restored to their previous levels there is also a greater chance for improvement on the diplomatic and political levels. All in all the situation is still complicated with a lot of question marks regarding the upgrading of the bilateral relations between the two countries.
What do you believe to be the reason(s) for the emergence of these developments at this time in particular? Is it because both countries have been facing common threats in the region?
As you said that both countries are facing common threats might in fact be the reason for the recent shift. But it should also be noted that in the past there were many cases in which there were high expectations for the renewal of bilateral relations the resumption of good relations etc. and then nothing happened. I think this may be one of those instances. Perhaps even though both Turkey and Israel are trying to find ways to improve their relationship the ball may now be in Israel’s court. This is because of Turkey’s calls for indemnities after the Mavi Marmara incident Turkey’s demands in Gaza and so on. In this way Israel may be finding it beneficial to bring forward these issues in its own time.
The paradigmatic changes that are taking place in the region especially the collapse of the nation-states in Syria Iraq Yemen and Libya brought to the fore all kinds of non-state actors that are very dangerous to the stability of the region. In the past trying to promote stability was the main point that brought Israel and Turkey together. Now in my opinion the point that can bring Turkey and Israel together as very strong countries is to join one another in thinking of ideas on how to stabilize the region.
Even though Israel supports Kurdish independence in the region we haven’t heard any strong voice from Israel denouncing Turkey’s fight against the PKK in northern Iraq in July. What would be the reason behind the silence of Israel on this issue?
The main aim of the Israeli government is to try to avoid antagonizing Turkey on this issue. There is a very thin line here however. When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other high ranking officials spoke out in support of Kurdish independence last year they were only referring to the Kurds of Iraq. Whenever it comes to the Kurds of Turkey on the other hand Israeli ministers and officials try to abstain from commenting on the issue because they have a mind to improving Israel’s relations with Turkey in the future. They think the best way to go about this is to remain silent. This has also been the preferred approach in the past as they never mentioned the Kurdish issue in Turkey.
Both Israel’s foreign ministry and other ministries are trying to stay aloof in order to avoid touching on the issue. This in itself means that Israel still maintains hopes of improving its relationship with Turkey as opposed to closing the door on it. On the other hand Turkey is supporting Hamas which Israel considers to be a terrorist organization that is directly endangering the country. Nonetheless Israel by the same token does not try to use the PKK or the Turkish Kurdish issue as a trump card against Turkey or President Tayyip Erdogan.
What would be the motivations for both countries to improve their relations?
Throughout the history of Turkish-Israeli relations there have been certain points that formed the basis for improving bilateral ties. One of these points has been external danger. For example in 1958 when there was the danger of communism in Syria and Egypt we started the Periphery Alliance. Another instance of convergence occurred when there was an opening in the Palestinian issue; for example during Israel’s improvement of relations with the Palestinians from 1991-1993 as a result of the Madrid Conference. These occasions have presented points of opening in which Turkish-Israeli relations improved. Yet now in spite of the fact that there is a very terrible problem in the region -Syria is collapsing Iraq is collapsing- still we are not seeing a move being taken by the Turkish side.
If Israel executes a significant opening towards the Palestinians maybe in Gaza or if Israel makes a tacit agreement with Hamas that might open the door. It could be a kind of excuse for Turkey to improve its relations with Israel. Moreover maybe the secret talks between Israel and Hamas could be an answer to your earlier question about the timing of the possible upgrading of Turkish-Israeli relations. Yet I don’t know to what extent Israel is going to move forward with Hamas which still insists on eliminating Israel.
In addition another important point at which Israel and Turkey could converge has to do with Iran’s hegemonic ambitions which are dangerous for both countries. If one reads Iranian newspapers s/he will see how they portray Turkey as a very dangerous country. In this regard Turkey and Israel could come together on this point.
There have been certain expectations that Turkey and Israel could develop their relations by way of energy cooperation. These expectations have increased after the involvement of Egypt in the Eastern Mediterranean energy equation. Is it reasonable to consider cooperation on this front without Turkey?
When talking about energy in Israeli-Turkish relations I think one of the most important dynamics that needs to be considered is the triangular relationship between the Kurds of Iraq as producers of oil Turkey as the conveyer of that oil and Israel as a buyer. I don’t think that Israel would like to make any further steps to develop relations with Turkey as they relate to gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean. In my opinion Israel is very suspicious of the possibilities of opening a gas pipeline with Turkey because an earlier attempt to establish a water pipeline between the two didn’t work.
In this way I think that because Israel is not sure what the bilateral political relationship will look like it is fearful that if it were to open a pipeline with Turkey somebody would sabotage or use it in a negative way. However as of late there are some signs that Israel will be willing to move forward on this issue. First Turkey itself is in in urgent need of gas following the Russian decision to stop selling it to Turkey. Second Israel is in need of markets for its gas since some difficulties arose in the Egyptian market. Furthermore there are voices in Israel who advocate moving forward on the gas issue as a ladder for improving political relations.
Do you think this stance is reversible depending on the resolution of the Cyprus issue?
There are two problems which are unsolvable: the Cyprus issue and the Palestinian issue. In this sense I would rather use the word “containment”. You can contain these issues but I don’t know if you can solve them. The Cyprus issue dates back to 1974. The Palestinian issue is older and we still haven’t been able to find a solution.
If not a cooperation Israel has a coordination with Russia they set up a ‘hotline’ on Syria. How should this be interpreted in terms of Israeli-Russian relations while also considering Turkey’s downing of the Russian warplane?
Israel’s coordination with Russia should not affect its relationship with Turkey. Similarly the downing of the warplane by Turkey is not related to Israel in any way. Of course like Turkey Israel is not happy with the involvement of Russia in the region but it is doing its best to minimize its negative repercussions.
By Büra N. Özgüler
* Prof. Ofra Bengio is a renowned expert on the Kurds the history and politics of Iraq and modern Turkey at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies. She is the author of numerous studies on the modern Middle East and the relationship between the Arab world and Israel.