There are none so blind as those who refuse to see - especially if they are leveraged with 50 per cent loans to value. So even my closest friends pooh-poohed my call for a global financial crash on October 19 2015 "Is a financial crash looming?". I was horrified by the events in China the free-fall in mining/oil the meltdown in emerging markets liquidity shocks in Wall Street ETF and junk bond trading desks geopolitical risk in the Mideast Russia and North Korea the unmistakable metrics of fear evident in volatility forward curves tough love from the hard money gents on the Federal Open Market Committee. Now a global financial crash is happening in real time in my Bloomberg screen. Ask not for whom the bell (of the margin calls?) tolls. It tolls for the thee duckies! So what next?

I see Citigroup with a blowout quarter yet its shares fall five per cent to $43. I see crude oil trade at $29 down 17 per cent in the past two weeks alone. I see the high-beta biotechs and FANG megacaps fall 20 per cent (Celgene how I love you below 90 and now thanks to CBOE puts you can be mine!). Shenzhen has lost 25 per cent in January alone. Emerging markets and GCC equities face the mother of all margin calls even though many Gulf shares trade below book value. This is 2008 all over again. Those who do not grasp the macro significance of the Crash of 2016 jeopardise their financial survival. Risk is a four-letter word. So is ruin.

What are the macro smoke signals? Hedge macro risk as King Dollar goes on a rampage once US data momentum reaccelerates. Earnings growth will be a disaster emerging markets risk is leprosy in times like this. This is no time to view the world as an ostrich though I lose no opportunity to broaden the continually expanding frontier of my own ignorance by hibernating in my man cave aerie a broker free zone high above the Gulf shore. The name of the game is return of faloos not return on faloos.

Central banks must never be trusted to defend the interest of investors. As Yeats said the best lack all conviction (Dr Rajan) while the worst (Bubbles Greenspan "subrprime will be contained" Ben and Mama Janet!) are full of passionate intensity. So yes things fall apart the centre cannot hold mere anarchy is loosened on the world. What Sigmund Freud says about death wishes and Werner Heisenberg said about subatomic particles (the act of observation changes the nature of the object being observed. Dodd Frank!) matters more when markets go ballistic than what Yellen Draghi and Marky Mark says about interest rates. So when in doubt cut it out. Neural networks will determine the epic contest between Mr Market and Johnny Habibi of Shwarma Capital. Safe havens? Ireland the lovely emerald island of Joyce and Nora where it is always a long long way from Tiperary it's a long long way to go.

Denial no longer makes sense and the wrath of the margin clerks is all too real. Private Bankerji will turn into a heat seeking missile when the Big Boss orders the epic margin calls. Note that a spike in volatility forces bank to slash leverage gifts. JPMorgan's immortal advice in the Panic of 1907: "Liquidity is like a cab on a rainy night. It disappears when you need it the most". So avoid rainbows pipedreams and $60 billion unicorns - like Uber. Trillions of innocent souls will be zapped at the speed of light into money heaven. Leverage is now the kiss of death.

China's $10.4 trillion economy will have its own lost decade. Commodities markets could have a 20-year bear markets as in the 1990s. The "Made in China" global recession scenario I outlined last summer is now a reality and yes its dark side will hit the US economy and the leveraged netherworld of global baking.

My bearish call on India last spring (27000 Sensex levels) is in the money. How can Dalal Street trade at a valuation premium on the eve of a systemic banking crisis that will throttle loan growth and the rupee? Asia now trades at 9/11 Hong Kong SARs and Lehman lows. Asia prices in a global recession as I expected. MS Asia ex-Japan trades at 1.2 times book value. Yet who believes book value amid global crisis? Note the Hong Kong dollar has sagged to 7.79. Somebody very big is targeting the peg. Somebody very big is taking on the Red Emperor of the Middle Kingdom. Who next? what next?