Emerging markets were an entirely predictable horror story once again in 2015. The oil/mining bust currency meltdowns China's hard landing sovereign credit downgrades banking system crises corruption scandals and geopolitical crises from Ukraine to Syria the Black Sea to the South China Sea devastated investor wealth in emerging markets.

India's Sensex and Nifty were down nine per cent while the rupee has depreciated to 66 against the US dollar. GCC equities indices and even Egypt in the epicentre of a $500 billion lost petrocurrency revenue deflation shock due to oil the crash lost 30-35 per cent for investors. Turkey and Brazil mired in political scandals inflation crises and banking time bombs lost 40-45 per cent for investors. As the Fed raises its overnight borrowing rate China devalues its yuan with its new foreign exchange regime the IMF slashes global growth forecasts to only three per cent South Korean Chinese and Taiwan exports sag as world trade shrinks it is impossible for me to be a cheerleader for emerging markets. However amid the carnage money-making opportunities exist from Shanghai to Dubai from Mumbai or Uruguay.

My best macro call for 2016 is Argentina. President Mauricio Macri a pro-business reformer has ended 12 years of Peronist misrule. Macri has fired the central bank governor ended capital controls devalued the peso cut farm export taxes revamped the dodgy statistics agency (Chinese comrades could use help here!) and negotiated with sovereign debt restructuring holdouts that have prevented Argentina's return to the international capital markets. Banco Galicia and Banco Macro shares rose 50 per cent in November when Wall Street realised that Macri could move into the Casa Rosada. So don't cry for me Argentina. Evita is your tragic past but Macri and Alejandro Allende are your future. Your banking system is miniscule smaller than Panama. This will change and I must thank the lords of the pampas for the stellar sovereign spreads in Gauchito Bonds sometime this spring.

I would still short currencies with high external deficits mediocre GDP growth lousy political governance high inflation and commodities exposure. This means the South African rand (though Pravin is back) Brazil real Turkish lira Indonesian rupiah and the Colombian peso. Corporate/banking debt crises will emerge in India and the GCC. African equities will also remain a nightmare and I remain bearish Southeast Asia notably Thailand and Malaysia. Millennia after the Greeks trapped Xerxes' fleet in the ancient world's most epic sea battle before Actium Greece has been relegated to the emerging markets. My only interest in my beloved Aegean is to take my teenage twins to Mykonos the scene of my happiest youthful summers.

Emerging markets are 40 per cent of global growth and could well trigger history's first "Made in China" recession. Brazil's economy bigger than Canada is the largest in Latin America and the seventh-largest in the world. Now that Joaquim Levy has resigned another sovereign debt credit downgrade is inevitable. As a Carioca friend pointed out Dilma's approval rating is below Brazil's eight per cent inflation rate. Ain't no sunshine when she's gone on Ipanema Beach? Not so. Dilma has ruined Brazil's economy and could well resign the only reason I would buy the Bovespa down 43 per cent in 2015. Now that Russians cannot sunbathe in Bodrum Marmaris or Kusadasi the odds of the third Russian Revolution since October 1917 are rising though Alexei Navalny is thankfully no Lenin. No interest in Moscow equities or Russian Eurobonds for now though the rouble has value at 72.

I expect inflation to surge across emerging markets as currencies plunge. The Azerbaijan manat plunged 30 per cent last week after the Baku central bank abandoned its dollar peg. Yet devalued currencies can also boost exports squeeze imports and compress external deficits. This could be a source of hope in Jakarta and even Istanbul in 2016. US economic data momentum is a big risk if it causes aggressive Federal Reserve tightening and a spike in the US Treasury note yield. China's hard landing is ugly but could well turn uglier as its trillion dollar shadow (Ponzi) banking system implodes. A consumer debt/mortgage bubble could well devastate Hong Kong Singapore Thailand and South Korea. A major sovereign debt default or banking failure could shock Wall Street given $3.8 trillion in unhedged EM corporate debt. Turkish Indian Indonesian Russian and Mexican corporates and their "kitty banks" are obvious black swans (a philosophical oxymoron?). I am no Cassandra but I babysit multi-generation family money and know exactly what I want. I want inflation linked dividends no phony accounting no political risk. I want megacap America and Europe.