(MENAFN- ProactiveInvestors)2015: The Year in Money Huge mega-mergers. Anemic hedge fund returns. Billion-dollar venture capital deals. 2015 was a year of record highs and lows. David Fuller's view This is an interesting visual summary from Bloomberg showing some of the major events from a US perspective. Roger Bootle: Weak China and Cheap Oil Do Not a Happy Forecaster Make Here is the opening of this informative column published by The Telegraph posted without further comment: It's nearly that time of year again: the time to reflect and take stock of the year just passed. My excuse for getting in early is twofold: first an impending holiday; second the likelihood that nothing much will happen between now and December 31 to change the economic landscape. This year has had its fair share of surprises perhaps most importantly the further falls in oil prices and continued softness of other commodities. Of course the weakness of oil prices had begun before the start of the year but the sheer extent of the fall since mid-2014 has caught almost all observers by surprise. Even more surprising has been the apparently negative effect on the world economy. If you had told us two years ago or even one year ago that oil would fall below $40 a barrel most economists would have said that this would be extremely bullish for the world economy. As it is each new phase of oil and commodity price weakness seems to have led to stock market losses and renewed bearishness about the world economy. In various columns over the past year I have tried to set out the reasons for this apparent paradox: the losses from lower oil prices were more concentrated than the gains which are spread thinly throughout the world economy and hence the immediate response of the losers has been stronger. Accordingly the overall result across the world was a hit to both consumption and investment. David Fuller's view A PDF of Roger Bootle's article is in the Subscriber's Area. Putin 2015 Foreign Policy Score Card Here is the opening from this interesting appraisal by Leonid Bershidsky for Bloomberg: United Nations Security Council Resolution 2254 which laid out the map of a peace process in Syria crowns a year of risky gambles for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Most of these played out badly for ordinary Russians but Putin himself appears to have improved his international standing after an ugly 2014 carving out a clear - though not necessarily enviable - new role for Russia in world affairs. In 2014 Putin became a near-pariah. After Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine the leaders of what used to be the Group of Eight decided to cancel a meeting in Sochi and agreed to hit Russia with weak but humiliating economic sanctions. The U.N. General Assembly passed a resolution stating the annexation was illegal and only 10 countries - including North Korea Zimbabwe Venezuela and Sudan - backed Russia by voting against it. China and India abstained though and Putin decided he could pivot toward his partners in Asia demonstrating that "the West" and "the world" are not synonyms. Russia also signed some long-term energy deals with China in 2014 but they fell short of forming a solid anti-Western alliance. The crash of a Malaysian plane in eastern Ukraine apparently shot down by Moscow-backed rebels made things worse. A Moscow-approved Ukraine cease-fire didn't work. At a Group of 20 summit in Australia in November other world leaders shunned or snubbed Putin who had ordered Russian warships to approach Australian shores ahead of the meeting and he left early. Putin wanted his views and interests to be heeded. Instead he got contempt and a measure of fear a combination that wasn't much better than disregard. So in 2015 he set out to improve his global standing with a series of bold moves. David Fuller's view Putin now has a good chance of improving his strained relations with the EU UK USA and the UN by cooperating with international military efforts to defeat Daesh in the Middle East. This item continues in the Subscriber's Area. My personal portfolio A stock market trade rolled forward David Fuller's view Details and charts are in the Subscriber's Area. The Markets Now Monday 18th January 2016 5:30pm to 8:30pm followed by refreshments and conversation. Note - this Markets Now will be held at The Caledonian Club 9 Halkin St London SW1X 7DR. David Fuller's view Here is the brochure for the next Markets Now session and just click on the map to see The Caledonian Club location in more detail. Iain Little's sessions on Investment Trusts have become increasingly interesting and relevant he will also address the last two bullet points in the brochure. Iain's partner Bruce Albrecht will also be attending. David Brown will be talking about the dramatic transformation underway in the Healthcare sector to which he is a hands-on contributor. When I last saw David he had just returned from South Tibet with many photos of the charity for orphans which he co-founded. He had also written a paper on the latest anti-aging research findings. He was so interesting on these subjects that I persuaded him to show a few of the photos from Tibet and also briefly mention anti-aging which has a 30-year swing factor which most people can control for themselves. I will be asking delegates to help me with my challenging talk of opportunities and risks for markets in 2016 plus the Eurozone and 'Grexit' questions in the first three bullet points. Incrementum AG Investors Letter Thanks to a subscriber for this letter by Ronald Peter Stoferle and Mark Valek which may be of interest. Here is a section: That the Fed is walking on eggshells has become obvious from the complications related to hike rates for the first time in 10 years. This impressively demonstrates that the market is highly dependent on low interest rates. It seems as if the market participants would be conditioned on ever increasing money stimuli like Pavlovian dogs. Regarding commodities the fear of the first rate hike could turn out to be a huge 'buy the rumor sell the fact'. Contrary to the common assessment commodities are the best performers after historical rate hikes of the Fed when comparing different asset classes. On the other hand the US dollar tends significantly lower after the first 100 days after the first rate hike. Even though confidence in the equity markets continues to be exceptionally high the actual performance is anything but formidable. While European stock indices were outperforming American titles this primarily results from a significantly weaker euro. The term 'devaluation boom' hits the bull's-eye in this context. With regard to the broad stock market we think the party is pretty nearly over. Eoin Treacy's view A link to the full letter is posted in the Subscriber's Area. A point made earlier by Allen Brooks' is that the US Dollar does not tend to do well in the first three months following the first hike after an easing cycle. This is an important consideration because the majority of investors now seem to adhere to the medium-term Dollar bull story. We were early in identifying the relative strength of the Dollar and continue to believe that its secular decline is over not least because of widening interest rate differentials. However it is also worth considering the US administration does not want to have a currency which is appreciating against its international competitors in a linear fashion. SolarWindow Technologies call Eoin Treacy's view I placed a call to the investor relations department of SolarWindow last week following the surge in its share price despite the fact it's product is not commercially available. They offered two key pieces of information I believe subscribers might be interested in. Spanish Yield Rises to 5-Week High on Instability After Election This article by Anooja Debnath and Lucy Meakin for Bloomberg may be of interest to subscribers. Here is a section: Spain's government bonds fell pushing the 10-year yield to the highest in five weeks after an indecisive election left Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy with limited options to forge a governing majority threatening a period of instability. The yield difference between Spanish and similar-maturity Italian bonds widened to the most since mid-November amid muted declines in the rest of the euro-area's peripheral debt markets. While Rajoy's People's Party placed first in Sunday's election earning the right to try to form government the results suggest the only party able to form a majority with him in the 350- member parliament would be the Socialists the PP's historic rivals. Even in Spain the losses were limited with the slide only the largest in a week as investors focus on European Central Bank bond purchases lower debt issuance and an improving economic outlook. Monday is the last day of ECB buying until Jan. 4. 'The election outcome failed to provide us a clear picture of who will take power' said Anders Moller Lumholtz chief analyst with Danske Bank A/S in Copenhagen. 'It is likely to take time before we get clarity and uncertainty is not a friend of the market. ECB QE buying could cushion some of the knee-jerk reaction but as Monday is the last day before the QE goes on pause we probably shouldn't expect much effect from that side. Beyond the political uncertainty we are positive on Spain.' Eoin Treacy's view Spain has been a beneficiary both of relatively stable government and ECB largesse which has allowed the economy recover following a major property market crash. However since Greece represents investors' most recent experience of government upheaval within the Eurozone nerves are understandably frayed. This is particularly true when such a large country is involved. Eoin Personal Portfolio: profit taken on stock market long Eoin Treacy's view Details of this trade are posted in the Subscriber's Area. Email of the day on Amazon and its marketplace partners Does the equation work both ways Could the shippers cut deals with the manufacturers and in essence back door Amazon by having the superior delivery portion of the transaction If so what are your thoughts on valuation disparity Eoin Treacy's view Thank you for this important question and it's something I've also been thinking about given Tesla Motors control of its entire sales process. In addition to the other major initiatives pioneered by the company its decision to forego the dealership route in favour of selling cars directly is an example of how a manufacturer does not need to rely on bulk sales as it builds scale.
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